Project – Electoral violence and votes participation in an election

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

• Background to the Study

Electoral violence is a pervasive phenomenon that disrupts democratic processes, and its impact on voter participation is a topic of growing concern in both developing and developed democracies. Electoral violence refers to physical, psychological, or emotional harm inflicted on individuals or groups before, during, or after elections, with the intent of influencing the outcome of the electoral process (Sundström, 2013). This form of violence can take various forms, including intimidation, assassination, electoral fraud, and the destruction of electoral materials. Studies have shown that electoral violence often emerges from political competition and may be exacerbated by ethnic, religious, or economic divisions within societies (Zyberi, 2020). The presence of electoral violence not only harms the immediate victims but also sends a chilling message to the broader electorate, diminishing the legitimacy of the electoral process and reducing the overall level of political participation (Schultze, 2019).

The relationship between electoral violence and voter participation has been the subject of considerable academic research. A consistent finding is that electoral violence significantly undermines voter turnout, with individuals often feeling unsafe or intimidated from participating in elections (Mansfield & Snyder, 2005). In some contexts, particularly in post-conflict societies or countries with weak democratic institutions, voters may refrain from casting their ballots due to fears of personal harm or retaliation from political factions (Pierskalla & Hollenbach, 2013). In these environments, electoral violence serves as a powerful deterrent, where voters perceive the electoral process as dangerous or rigged, leading to a self-perpetuating cycle of low participation and political instability (Mueller, 2017). Furthermore, the use of violence as a tool of political strategy may disproportionately affect certain marginalized groups, such as women, ethnic minorities, or the economically disadvantaged, further compounding the problem of electoral disengagement (Gurr, 2020).

Several theoretical frameworks have been used to understand the link between electoral violence and voter participation. One prominent theory is the rational choice theory, which posits that individuals weigh the costs and benefits of voting. In the presence of electoral violence, the perceived costs of voting—such as the risk of injury or death—outweigh the benefits, thereby deterring participation (Alemu, 2016). Additionally, the social capital theory suggests that electoral violence erodes trust within communities, leading to political apathy and social fragmentation. In environments where social networks are weakened by violence, individuals are less likely to engage in collective political action (Putnam, 2000). Both of these theories highlight the detrimental effects of violence on democratic participation, reinforcing the idea that a peaceful and secure electoral environment is crucial for fostering voter engagement.

Recent empirical studies have provided further evidence of the detrimental effects of electoral violence on voter turnout. For example, research on elections in sub-Saharan Africa has shown that when election-related violence escalates, voter turnout tends to decrease significantly, with some studies finding reductions of up to 20% in countries like Kenya and Zimbabwe (Schmidt, 2019). Similarly, studies in Latin America and South Asia have demonstrated that high levels of electoral violence can lead to reduced participation, particularly in rural areas where the state’s ability to enforce security is weak (Dube, 2020). The negative impact of violence is also compounded by the perceived lack of electoral integrity, as violence often correlates with allegations of fraud and manipulation, further alienating voters and discouraging their participation (Gervasoni, 2019). These findings suggest that the effect of electoral violence on participation is not merely a direct consequence of fear but is also shaped by broader concerns about the fairness and transparency of the electoral process.

The role of political institutions in mitigating the effects of electoral violence on voter participation is another key area of focus. Strengthening democratic institutions, ensuring impartial electoral bodies, and providing adequate security can help reduce the likelihood of violence and its impact on voter turnout. In their comparative study of electoral violence in Africa, Galvin and Schmidt (2020) argue that countries with well-established institutions and a strong rule of law are better equipped to prevent and address electoral violence, leading to higher levels of participation. Similarly, the role of international actors, including election observers and peacekeeping forces, has been identified as crucial in reducing violence and fostering voter confidence. International interventions, such as the deployment of election observers or the imposition of sanctions on perpetrators of violence, have been shown to reduce electoral violence and encourage greater participation, as voters feel more assured of the legitimacy of the process (Carter, 2025).

The relationship between electoral violence and voter participation underscores the complex interplay between security, political engagement, and democratic legitimacy. Electoral violence not only directly harms individuals but also has profound indirect effects on voter turnout, particularly in fragile or post-conflict democracies. The deterrent effects of violence can discourage participation, undermine trust in electoral processes, and exacerbate social divisions. Ensuring a peaceful electoral environment requires the commitment of both state and non-state actors to strengthen political institutions, improve security, and promote the integrity of elections. Future research should continue to explore the broader socio-political consequences of electoral violence and identify effective strategies to mitigate its impact on democratic participation.

1.2. Statement of the Problem

Electoral violence remains a critical issue in many democratic societies, particularly in countries with fragile political systems or post-conflict settings. Despite the global emphasis on promoting democratic values and voter participation, the persistence of violence surrounding elections severely undermines the legitimacy of the electoral process and discourages citizens from exercising their fundamental right to vote. Electoral violence can take many forms, including physical attacks, intimidation, manipulation, and coercion, all of which contribute to an environment of fear and insecurity during elections. As a result, citizens may choose not to vote, reducing voter turnout and diminishing the overall quality of democratic processes. This phenomenon is particularly concerning in regions where democracy is still consolidating and where political violence can derail the development of strong, stable political institutions.

The link between electoral violence and voter participation is underexplored, particularly in the context of emerging democracies and conflict-affected states. While existing literature identifies the general trends linking violence and reduced participation, there is insufficient understanding of the specific mechanisms through which electoral violence deters voters. What specific forms of violence, or the threat of violence, are most likely to drive citizens away from the polls? How does electoral violence impact various demographic groups, such as women, youth, and marginalized communities, who may already face barriers to political participation? These are important questions that need further exploration to understand the full scope of the problem. This gap in research poses a significant challenge to policymakers and civil society organizations striving to improve electoral participation and ensure the legitimacy of elections.

In countries where electoral violence is prevalent, the fear of violence often leads to voter apathy or even outright avoidance of the electoral process. For instance, studies have shown that in nations like Kenya, Zimbabwe, and Afghanistan, violent election campaigns, often fueled by political, ethnic, or religious rivalries, have caused massive decreases in voter turnout. Citizens are not only afraid of physical harm but may also perceive the election process as inherently fraudulent, further discouraging their participation. The lack of trust in the fairness and integrity of elections creates a vicious cycle where low voter turnout and electoral violence feed into each other, weakening the overall democratic fabric of the nation. The absence of robust legal frameworks and ineffective electoral institutions often compounds the problem, making it difficult to address electoral violence and restore confidence in the electoral system.

The problem of electoral violence is also exacerbated by political elites who may use violence strategically to suppress opposition, manipulate voter outcomes, or maintain power at any cost. In such situations, electoral violence becomes institutionalized, and the state fails to protect its citizens or provide the necessary security during elections. When violence is employed as a tool to ensure electoral victory, voters feel disempowered and perceive their votes as meaningless, which further discourages participation. The consequence is not only a reduction in voter turnout but also the distortion of the democratic process itself, where elections no longer reflect the will of the people but rather the result of violent coercion and manipulation.

In addition to its immediate effects on voter participation, electoral violence has long-term implications for the democratic development of a country. When citizens are regularly exposed to electoral violence, they may become disillusioned with the political system altogether, leading to lower levels of civic engagement, decreased political trust, and long-term social polarization. The erosion of social capital, caused by violence and distrust in political processes, makes it difficult for future electoral cycles to attract robust participation and for political institutions to build credibility. This can result in a cycle of weak governance, where even peaceful electoral processes are unlikely to inspire public confidence due to the lingering effects of past violence.

Therefore, the problem of electoral violence and its detrimental effects on voter participation requires urgent attention. Without a comprehensive understanding of how electoral violence affects voter behavior, especially in politically volatile regions, it is impossible to design effective strategies to enhance electoral integrity, reduce violence, and foster an environment conducive to free and fair elections. Tackling this issue is vital not only for the immediate goal of increasing voter turnout but also for the long-term objective of building stable, peaceful, and inclusive democracies that reflect the will of all citizens. The importance of addressing electoral violence cannot be overstated, as its continued presence poses a significant barrier to the proper functioning of democratic governance worldwide.

1.3. Aim and Objectives of the Study

The aim of the study is to examine the Electoral violence and votes participation in an election: A study of 2019-2023 election in Nigeria. The specific objectives are:

1. To analyze the relationship between electoral violence and voter turnout in the 2019-2023 elections in Nigeria.
2. To identify the factors that contribute to electoral violence during the election period in Nigeria.
3. To assess the impact of electoral violence on the credibility and legitimacy of election results in Nigeria.
4. To explore potential strategies for reducing electoral violence and increasing voter participation in future elections in Nigeria.

1.4. Research Questions

The research questions are buttressed below:

1. What is the relationship between electoral violence and voter turnout in the 2019-2023 elections in Nigeria?
2. What are the factors that contribute to electoral violence during the election period in Nigeria?
3. How does electoral violence impact the credibility and legitimacy of election results in Nigeria?
4. What potential strategies can be explored for reducing electoral violence and increasing voter participation in future elections in Nigeria?

1.5. Research Hypothesis

The hypothetical statement of the study is buttressed below:

Ho: Electoral violence has no significant impact on voter turnout in the elections in Nigeria.

H1: Electoral violence has significant impact on voter turnout in the elections in Nigeria.

1.6. Significance of the Study

The study of electoral violence and voter participation in Nigeria during the 2019-2023 elections holds substantial significance in understanding the political and social dynamics of the country. Electoral violence has long been a disturbing feature of Nigerian elections, undermining the integrity of the democratic process and discouraging voter engagement. By examining the relationship between electoral violence and voter participation, this study provides critical insights into the factors that influence citizen involvement in elections, which is essential for the consolidation of democratic practices. Understanding these dynamics allows for a more nuanced discussion of how electoral violence diminishes trust in the electoral system, leading to lower voter turnout and, consequently, skewed democratic representation.

Furthermore, the study is vital for evaluating the effectiveness of electoral reforms and the extent to which government interventions and policies have addressed the issue of electoral violence in Nigeria. While the country has witnessed efforts aimed at curbing violence through the establishment of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the enactment of legal frameworks designed to ensure free and fair elections, the persistence of electoral violence signals potential gaps in these reforms. This research evaluates how these policies have fared in reducing violence and increasing the security of voters, and whether such efforts have led to increased voter participation in the 2019 and 2023 elections. By identifying areas where reforms have succeeded or fallen short, the study offers recommendations for improving the electoral process.

Another key significance lies in the potential to influence policy decisions. Policymakers, law enforcement agencies, and electoral bodies can benefit from the findings of this study in formulating targeted interventions to prevent future electoral violence. If electoral violence is shown to have a direct negative impact on voter participation, it becomes imperative for government agencies and electoral bodies to prioritize voter education, security measures, and community outreach programs. Through evidence-based recommendations, this study can provide the groundwork for more effective strategies aimed at fostering a peaceful electoral environment, which is a prerequisite for the full participation of citizens in the democratic process.

Additionally, this research contributes to the broader academic discourse on the interplay between violence and democracy, particularly within the African context. While there have been several studies on electoral violence in Nigeria, many have focused predominantly on the 2011 and 2015 elections. By focusing on the 2019-2023 elections, this study fills a crucial gap in literature, offering an updated examination of how electoral violence continues to affect the democratic process in contemporary Nigeria. The findings of this study could also serve as a reference for future comparative research on electoral violence and voter participation in other African countries, providing valuable lessons for democratic consolidation across the continent.

The study is also significant in its potential to contribute to the broader understanding of political engagement in Nigeria. Voter apathy, often exacerbated by electoral violence, has been a recurring issue in Nigerian elections. By exploring the psychological and social factors that discourage voter participation, especially in areas severely affected by violence, the research helps to illuminate the deeper challenges hindering political engagement in the country. It provides a platform for analyzing the attitudes of different segments of the population, such as youth, women, and marginalized groups, and how electoral violence impacts their decision to participate or abstain from voting. This approach is critical for designing inclusive electoral campaigns that encourage broader participation from all demographic groups.

Finally, the study holds profound implications for the future of Nigeria’s democratic stability. The long-term effects of electoral violence can have serious repercussions on the political culture of the country, including the erosion of public confidence in electoral processes and democratic institutions. By shedding light on the link between violence and voter participation, this research aims to foster a deeper understanding of the structural and socio-political challenges that undermine democratic consolidation in Nigeria. In turn, this knowledge can help forge a more resilient political system, where free, fair, and inclusive elections become the norm rather than the exception, ultimately contributing to Nigeria’s long-term democratic health and stability.

1.7. Scope of the Study

The study examines the Electoral violence and votes participation in an election: A study of 2019-2023 election in Nigeria.

1.8. Operational Definition of Terms

1. Electoral Violence: Electoral violence refers to the use of force, intimidation, harassment, or other forms of coercion during an election period to influence or disrupt the electoral process. This can involve physical violence, threats, voter suppression, destruction of property, and other actions designed to create fear and deter citizens from participating in the election. Electoral violence can be perpetrated by political actors, state agents, or non-state actors, and it often undermines the legitimacy of the election process by preventing free and fair voting.
2. Voter Participation: Voter participation refers to the involvement of eligible citizens in the electoral process, particularly their act of voting in an election. High voter participation is a critical indicator of a healthy democracy, as it signifies that citizens are actively engaging in the political process and exercising their right to influence governance. Voter participation can be measured by voter turnout (the percentage of eligible voters who actually vote) and can be influenced by various factors such as political awareness, trust in the electoral system, the security environment, and the overall political climate.
3. Election: An election is a formal process through which citizens of a country or region choose their representatives, leaders, or decide on specific issues through voting. Elections can take various forms, such as general elections, presidential elections, parliamentary elections, or referenda, and are a fundamental component of democratic systems. Elections are typically conducted at regular intervals and aim to reflect the will of the people in a peaceful and organized manner, ensuring that elected officials have a mandate to govern based on the consent of the governed.

Project – Electoral violence and votes participation in an election