Project – Changing Rainfall Patterns and Farmers’ Crop-Selection Decisions: A Study of Smallholder Farmers in Benue State

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background to the Study

Agriculture remains one of the most climate-sensitive sectors of the economy because crop production depends heavily on the availability, timing, amount and distribution of rainfall. For smallholder farmers, particularly those operating under rain-fed production systems, changes in rainfall can directly influence planting dates, crop establishment, crop growth, pest and disease occurrence, harvesting periods and final yields. Climate change has intensified these concerns through increasing rainfall variability, changes in the onset and cessation of rainy seasons, droughts, floods and other weather extremes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2022) reports that changes in the hydrological cycle are already affecting agriculture through increased rainfall variability, drought and flooding, with rain-fed crops particularly vulnerable to such changes.

Changing rainfall patterns are particularly important in developing countries where a large proportion of agricultural production is carried out by smallholder farmers with limited access to irrigation, improved technologies, credit and agricultural insurance. Smallholder farmers often make production decisions under considerable uncertainty because they cannot completely control the environmental conditions surrounding their farms. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, 2020) notes that increasingly erratic rainfall, rising temperatures and other climate-related pressures create serious challenges for smallholder farmers, while limited financial and institutional resources constrain their ability to adapt effectively.

One important way through which farmers respond to rainfall uncertainty is by changing the crops they cultivate. Crop-selection decisions involve choosing particular crops, varieties or combinations of crops based on factors such as rainfall, soil conditions, expected returns, food requirements, labour availability, market opportunities and perceived production risks. Climate therefore forms an important component of farmers’ crop-selection decisions. Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn (2007), using evidence from more than 7,000 African farmers, found that crop choices were highly sensitive to climatic conditions and that farmers tended to select crops that were better suited to prevailing temperature and precipitation conditions. This suggests that changes in rainfall may not only affect crop yields after planting but may also influence the initial decision about what farmers choose to plant.

In Nigeria, the relationship between rainfall variability and agricultural decision-making is particularly important because much of the country’s agricultural production remains dependent on rainfall. The World Bank has observed that the average Nigerian farmer is predominantly a smallholder who relies on rain-fed agriculture, while climate change is contributing to shorter rainy seasons, drought, heat stress and more frequent heavy rainfall events. These conditions increase production risks and make agricultural planning more difficult for farmers who have limited access to irrigation and other forms of climate protection (World Bank, 2022).

Evidence from Nigerian farming communities also indicates that farmers are experiencing noticeable changes in rainfall characteristics and are modifying their agricultural practices in response. Eludoyin et al. (2017) found that small-scale farmers perceived early and late rainfall, prolonged dry periods and excessive rainfall as important causes of poor crop performance, while many farmers responded by changing planting dates and diversifying their crops. Similarly, Ogunleye et al. (2017) found that farmers’ perceptions of climate variability were broadly consistent with meteorological observations, including fluctuations in rainfall during the growing season and changes in rainfall onset. These findings demonstrate that rainfall variability can influence not only production outcomes but also farmers’ behavioural and management decisions.

The issue is especially significant in Benue State, which is widely recognised for its agricultural importance and is often described as one of Nigeria’s major food-producing areas. Agriculture in the state includes the cultivation of crops such as maize, yam, cassava, rice, soybean, sorghum and other food and cash crops. However, the dependence of many farmers on seasonal rainfall exposes agricultural activities to fluctuations in the timing and distribution of precipitation. Falaki et al. (2013), in their study of rural farmers in Benue State, compared farmers’ perceptions of rainfall and temperature variability with 30 years of meteorological records and found evidence of changing climatic conditions. The study further showed that farmers were already employing different adaptation practices in response to perceived climate variability.

Studies specifically conducted in Benue State have further demonstrated the importance of rainfall variability to crop performance. Mage, Orvesen and Teryima (2023) examined rainfall characteristics and soybean yield in Ushongo Local Government Area and considered variables such as rainfall onset, cessation and annual rainfall totals in relation to soybean production. Similarly, research in Konshisha Local Government Area has examined the relationship between rainfall variability and soybean yields over several decades, demonstrating the relevance of rainfall conditions to crop productivity in the state. More recent research has also examined the effects of climate change on maize yield in selected Benue State LGAs using long-term rainfall and temperature data (Ikpe & Omede, 2025).

The relationship between rainfall variability and farmers’ crop-selection decisions is therefore an important area of investigation in Benue State. Farmers may respond to delayed rainfall onset by selecting early-maturing crops, reduce their dependence on crops requiring longer growing periods, increase crop diversification, adjust the proportions of crops cultivated or substitute crops perceived to be more vulnerable to drought or excessive rainfall. Shomkegh (2018) observed that more variable rainfall patterns in Central Nigeria, including later onset and earlier cessation of the wet season, created challenges for rain-fed agriculture in the Benue region and highlighted practices such as improved varieties, intercropping and zero tillage as important responses. The IPCC (2022) similarly identifies changing cropping patterns, adopting improved cultivars and adjusting planting schedules as important adaptation responses to rainfall variability.

Farmers’ crop-selection decisions, however, are unlikely to be determined by rainfall alone. Socio-economic characteristics such as age, education, farming experience, farm size, household size, access to extension services, credit, markets and climate information can influence the capacity of farmers to respond to climatic risks. Recent evidence from Nigerian smallholder farmers shows that education, farming experience, farm size, extension access, credit, climate information and social-group membership can significantly influence farmers’ choices of climate-smart agricultural practices (Mbossoh & Udoh, 2026). Thus, understanding crop-selection decisions requires attention to both the climatic pressures experienced by farmers and the socio-economic resources available to them.

In Benue State, where smallholder agriculture provides food, employment and household income for many rural communities, changes in crop-selection behaviour may have implications beyond individual farms. If farmers increasingly abandon crops that are highly sensitive to rainfall variability, this may alter local cropping patterns, food availability, market supply and household income. Conversely, selecting crops that are better adapted to changing rainfall conditions may strengthen farmers’ resilience and reduce production risks. Recent research on Benue State indicates that climate variability is already perceived as a threat to agricultural productivity, livelihoods and food security, making farmers’ responses to changing climate conditions an important subject for empirical investigation (Ikpe et al., 2025; Kpoghul et al., 2026).

Against this background, there is a need to move beyond examining only the effect of rainfall variability on crop yields and to investigate how changing rainfall patterns influence the decisions farmers make before production begins. Understanding whether farmers change the crops they select, the varieties they cultivate, the number of crops they grow or the proportion of land allocated to particular crops can provide useful evidence for agricultural extension planning, climate-information services, seed development and food-security interventions. Therefore, this study focuses on Changing Rainfall Patterns and Farmers’ Crop-Selection Decisions: A Study of Smallholder Farmers in Benue State.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Rainfall is a fundamental determinant of agricultural production in Benue State, yet its timing, amount and distribution have become increasingly difficult for farmers to predict. Changes in rainfall onset and cessation, irregular rainfall distribution, prolonged dry spells and episodes of excessive rainfall can create uncertainty about the appropriate time to plant and the crops that are likely to perform well. Evidence from Benue State has documented farmers’ perceptions of changing rainfall and temperature conditions, while studies of soybean and maize production have demonstrated the importance of rainfall characteristics to crop performance (Falaki et al., 2013; Mage et al., 2023; Ikpe & Omede, 2025).

The problem is not limited to reduced crop yields. When rainfall conditions become uncertain, farmers must make decisions about which crops to cultivate and which crops to avoid. A farmer who previously planted a long-duration crop may shift towards an early-maturing crop if the rainy season appears shorter. Another farmer may diversify into several crops to spread production risks, while others may increase the cultivation of drought-tolerant crops or crops that can withstand temporary water stress. Although these responses may represent rational adaptation strategies, they may also reduce the cultivation of certain crops and alter traditional cropping patterns. The IPCC (2022) identifies changes in cropping patterns, crop varieties and planting schedules as significant agricultural responses to changing rainfall and other climate-related risks.

Despite the importance of this issue, much of the existing research in Benue State has concentrated on the relationship between climate variability and crop yield, farmers’ perceptions of climate change, or general adaptation strategies. For example, existing studies have examined soybean yield in Ushongo, rainfall variability and soybean production in Konshisha, maize yield in selected LGAs, and farmers’ perceptions of climate variability in the state (Falaki et al., 2013; Mage et al., 2023; Ikpe & Omede, 2025). However, comparatively less attention has been given specifically to how changing rainfall patterns influence the actual crop-selection decisions of smallholder farmers. This creates a knowledge gap concerning the behavioural and decision-making dimension of climate adaptation among farmers in Benue State.

Furthermore, farmers do not make crop-selection decisions under climatic conditions alone. Their decisions may be shaped by access to climate information, extension services, credit, markets, farm size, farming experience, household food needs and expected profitability. If these factors are not adequately understood, interventions designed to help farmers adapt to changing rainfall may fail to address the practical realities influencing their decisions. Recent evidence among Nigerian smallholder farmers indicates that socio-economic characteristics and access to extension, credit and climate information significantly influence agricultural adaptation choices (Mbossoh & Udoh, 2026). Therefore, there is a need for an empirical study that examines the relationship between changing rainfall patterns and crop-selection decisions while also considering the factors that shape farmers’ responses in Benue State.

1.3 Purpose of the Study

The main purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between changing rainfall patterns and farmers’ crop-selection decisions among smallholder farmers in Benue State.

Specifically, the study seeks to:

1. examine the perceived changes in rainfall patterns among smallholder farmers in Benue State;
2. identify the major crops cultivated by smallholder farmers in the study area;
3. determine the extent to which changing rainfall patterns influence farmers’ crop-selection decisions;
4. examine the factors that influence farmers’ responses to changing rainfall patterns in crop selection

1.4 Research Questions

The following research questions will guide the study:

1. What changes in rainfall patterns are perceived by smallholder farmers in Benue State?
2. What major crops are cultivated by smallholder farmers in the study area?
3. To what extent do changing rainfall patterns influence farmers’ crop-selection decisions?
4. What factors influence farmers’ crop-selection decisions in response to changing rainfall patterns?

1.5 Research Hypothesis

The following null hypothesis will be tested at the 0.05 level of significance:

H₀: There is no significant relationship between changing rainfall patterns and crop-selection decisions among smallholder farmers in Benue State.

1.6 Significance of the Study

The study will be significant to smallholder farmers because it will provide evidence on how rainfall changes affect crop-selection decisions. Understanding the relationship may help farmers make more informed decisions concerning crop diversification, selection of suitable varieties, planting periods and other measures for managing rainfall-related risks.

The study will also be useful to agricultural extension officers. Findings from the study may help extension personnel understand the specific rainfall-related challenges influencing farmers’ decisions and improve the type of information and technical advice provided to farming communities. Timely climate information and location-specific agricultural advice are increasingly recognised as important components of climate adaptation among smallholder farmers (FAO, 2020; Mbossoh & Udoh, 2026).

The study will be beneficial to government agencies and agricultural policymakers in Benue State. Information on the relationship between rainfall patterns and crop selection can assist in developing agricultural policies that promote climate-resilient crops, improved seed varieties, extension services, irrigation development and farmer access to reliable climate information. Such interventions are particularly relevant because Nigeria’s agricultural sector remains highly exposed to climate-related risks (World Bank, 2022).

The study will also contribute to food-security planning. Changes in farmers’ crop-selection decisions can influence the availability and supply of important food crops. Understanding these changes can help policymakers anticipate potential shifts in local crop production and develop measures to reduce food-supply risks associated with climate variability.

Finally, the study will contribute to academic knowledge and future research by providing empirical evidence on the behavioural dimension of climate adaptation in agriculture. Rather than focusing solely on the effects of rainfall variability on yields, the study will examine how farmers respond at the decision-making stage, thereby contributing to the growing literature on climate change, agricultural adaptation and smallholder farming in Nigeria.

1.7 Scope of the Study

The study focuses on changing rainfall patterns and farmers’ crop-selection decisions among smallholder farmers in Benue State, Nigeria.

The study will cover the following major areas:

• perceived changes in rainfall onset and cessation;
• changes in rainfall amount and distribution;
• occurrence of prolonged dry spells;
• excessive or intense rainfall;
• farmers’ crop-selection decisions;
• crop diversification;
• selection of early-maturing and drought-tolerant crops;
• socio-economic factors influencing crop selection;
• access to climate and agricultural information; and
• adaptation strategies used by smallholder farmers.

The study is limited to smallholder crop farmers and does not primarily focus on large-scale commercial farms, livestock farmers or purely irrigated agricultural systems.

1.8 Operational Definition of Terms

Changing Rainfall Patterns: Variations or perceived changes in the amount, timing, intensity, onset, cessation and distribution of rainfall over time.

Crop-Selection Decisions: The choices farmers make regarding which crops or crop varieties to cultivate, the combinations of crops to grow and the amount of farmland allocated to particular crops.

Smallholder Farmers: Farmers who operate relatively small farms, generally using family labour and limited capital and technological resources for agricultural production.

Rainfall Variability: Fluctuations in rainfall characteristics, including amount, timing, intensity, frequency, onset and cessation across seasons or years.

Crop Diversification: The cultivation of different crops on the same farm or by the same farming household to spread production and economic risks.

Climate Adaptation: Adjustments in farming practices, crop choices, technologies or management decisions made in response to actual or expected climate-related changes.

Early-Maturing Crops: Crops or crop varieties that reach maturity within a relatively shorter period and may therefore be suitable for areas experiencing shortened or uncertain rainy seasons.

Drought-Tolerant Crops: Crops or varieties capable of maintaining relatively better growth and productivity under conditions of limited water availability.

Smallholder Agricultural Production: Agricultural production undertaken on a relatively small scale by farming households, often relying substantially on family labour and seasonal rainfall.

Project – Changing Rainfall Patterns and Farmers’ Crop-Selection Decisions: A Study of Smallholder Farmers in Benue State