Project – Effect of E-Voting Result on Citizen Confidence in Politics: A Case Study of 2023 General Election.

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background to the Study

Elections are fundamental to representative democracy because they enable citizens to choose political leaders, influence public policy and hold elected officials accountable. For elections to perform these functions effectively, citizens must have reasonable confidence that votes are counted accurately, results reflect voters’ choices and electoral institutions operate impartially. Norris (2014) explains that electoral integrity depends on the extent to which elections meet accepted standards throughout the electoral cycle, from the establishment of electoral laws to voting, counting and the declaration of results. Where citizens perceive electoral processes as transparent and credible, elections are more likely to strengthen democratic legitimacy; conversely, doubts about the accuracy of results can weaken confidence in political institutions and discourage civic participation.

The increasing application of information and communication technologies to electoral administration has been driven by the need to improve accuracy, transparency, efficiency and accountability. Electoral technologies may include electronic voter registration, biometric voter accreditation, electronic transmission of results and online publication of polling-unit results. According to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA, 2014), the introduction of electoral technology requires careful assessment of its purpose, institutional readiness, operational reliability and potential risks. Technology can reduce certain opportunities for human manipulation, but it cannot independently guarantee credible elections. Its contribution depends on effective implementation, clear procedures, reliable infrastructure and public understanding of how the system operates.

In Nigeria, concerns about electoral credibility have persisted across successive democratic elections since the restoration of civilian rule in 1999. Allegations of vote buying, intimidation, ballot manipulation, inaccurate result collation and administrative shortcomings have contributed to public debate about the integrity of elections. The introduction of technology into electoral administration was intended, among other objectives, to address some of these challenges and strengthen confidence in the electoral process. The Electoral Act 2022 provided a revised legal framework for election administration, including provisions concerning electronic accreditation and electronic transmission of results. However, the effect of technological reforms on citizens’ confidence depends not merely on their formal introduction but also on whether electoral officials implement them consistently and whether the public can independently assess the information they produce (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2022; Norris, 2014).

The 2023 general election was particularly significant because the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) deployed the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System to verify voters and used the INEC Result Viewing Portal to make polling-unit result sheets accessible online. BVAS was intended to strengthen voter authentication, while IReV was expected to improve public access to polling-unit results and increase transparency in the electoral process. These technologies created expectations that election administration would become more verifiable and that opportunities for certain forms of electoral malpractice would be reduced. Nevertheless, research on Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election indicates that technological deployment produced mixed assessments of electoral credibility, with concerns about result-uploading performance and implementation affecting public perceptions of the process (Abumbe & Egbara Owa, 2024; Ugbudu, 2025).

The relationship between electronic election results and citizen confidence is not necessarily straightforward. Citizens may regard technology as evidence of progress when it makes election results easier to access, compare and verify. However, when a system does not perform as expected, public expectations may turn into disappointment and suspicion. A study by Ogunbela and Abdulrasheed (2024), examining BVAS and public trust in the context of the 2023 presidential election in Yewa South, reported varied implications and challenges associated with the use of the technology. Similarly, Abumbe and Egbara Owa (2024) examined electoral integrity in the 2023 general election and highlighted concerns surrounding the credibility of the process. These studies suggest that the public’s confidence depends not only on whether technology is available but also on its actual performance and the transparency of the procedures surrounding it.

Citizen confidence in politics extends beyond satisfaction with a particular election result. It includes trust in electoral institutions, belief that political participation matters, acceptance of legitimate electoral outcomes and confidence that elected officials have obtained office through a credible process. Easton (1975) distinguishes between specific support, which relates to evaluations of political authorities and their performance, and diffuse support, which reflects more enduring attachment to the political system. Applied to electoral technology, this distinction suggests that citizens’ reactions to the publication or transmission of election results may affect their immediate assessment of INEC and may also influence their broader attitudes toward democratic institutions. When people believe that results are credible and verifiable, confidence may improve; when they suspect that official results do not reflect votes cast, confidence may deteriorate.

The 2023 general election therefore provides an important context for examining how citizens interpret the use and performance of electronic election-result systems. Although studies have investigated BVAS, IReV, electoral integrity and public trust, the relationship between citizens’ experiences of electronic result publication and their confidence in political institutions remains an important subject for further empirical investigation. The findings of existing studies are not entirely uniform: Ugbudu (2025) reports that BVAS enhanced electoral credibility in his assessment, while Abumbe and Egbara Owa (2024) identify significant concerns about electoral integrity. These different assessments reinforce the need to examine citizens’ own perceptions rather than assume that the introduction of technology automatically increases or reduces confidence. This study consequently investigates the effect of electronic election-result processes on citizen confidence in politics, using Nigeria’s 2023 general election as its case study.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

The credibility of elections is essential to democratic stability because election results determine who exercises political authority and how citizens evaluate the legitimacy of government. In Nigeria, concerns about electoral malpractice, the accuracy of result collation and the conduct of election management institutions have repeatedly raised questions about public confidence in the electoral process. Although electoral technology has been introduced to address some of these challenges, its ability to strengthen confidence depends on whether citizens believe that it produces accurate, transparent and verifiable outcomes. Norris (2014) argues that electoral integrity must be assessed against the standards governing the entire electoral process, rather than by the mere presence of particular procedures or technologies.

The deployment of BVAS and IReV during the 2023 general election generated expectations that voter accreditation would become more reliable and that polling-unit results would be more accessible to the public. However, concerns about the implementation and performance of electronic result publication created a gap between public expectations and the experience of the election. Abumbe and Egbara Owa (2024) identified concerns relating to electoral integrity in their assessment of the 2023 general election, while Ugbudu (2025) concluded that BVAS enhanced electoral credibility in his analysis of the election’s outcome. These findings demonstrate that assessments of election technology can differ and that the relationship between technology and electoral confidence requires careful investigation.

A further problem is that the use of electronic systems does not necessarily lead to a uniform response among citizens. Some voters may view electronic accreditation and online publication of results as evidence of improved transparency, while others may remain doubtful because of technical difficulties, delays, limited access to digital information or disagreements about the declared outcome. Ogunbela and Abdulrasheed (2024) found varied implications of BVAS for public trust in their study of voters in Yewa South. Such differences suggest that citizens’ confidence may be shaped by their direct experiences, their understanding of electoral technology and their perceptions of INEC’s institutional credibility. Without examining these factors, it is difficult to determine whether the use and performance of electronic result systems actually strengthened confidence in politics.

The central problem addressed by this study is the need to establish how the electronic accreditation and result-publication processes associated with Nigeria’s 2023 general election influenced citizens’ confidence in politics. In particular, it is necessary to determine whether perceived transparency, reliability and accessibility of election results were associated with greater trust in electoral institutions and acceptance of the electoral process. The study will therefore investigate citizens’ perceptions of the electronic result system and its relationship with political confidence, rather than presuming that the technology alone caused any particular outcome. This evidence may help inform improvements in electoral communication, technology implementation and public accountability ahead of future elections.

1.3 Aim and Objectives of the Study

1.3.1 Aim of the Study

The aim of this study is to examine the effect of electronic election-result processes on citizen confidence in politics, using Nigeria’s 2023 general election as a case study.

1.3.2 Specific Objectives

The specific objectives are to:

1. Examine the relationship between the transparency of electronic election-result publication and citizen confidence in politics during the 2023 general election.

2. Assess the perceived reliability of electronic election-result processes and their relationship with citizens’ trust in INEC.

3. Determine the extent to which citizens’ access to electronic election results influenced their perceptions of electoral credibility.

4. Investigate the relationship between citizens’ perceptions of the 2023 election-result process and their confidence in democratic institutions and political participation.

1.4 Research Questions

The following research questions will guide the study:

1. What is the relationship between the transparency of electronic election-result publication and citizen confidence in politics during the 2023 general election?

2. How did the perceived reliability of electronic election-result processes relate to citizens’ trust in INEC?

3. To what extent did citizens’ access to electronic election results influence their perceptions of electoral credibility?

4. What is the relationship between citizens’ perceptions of the 2023 election-result process and their confidence in democratic institutions and political participation?

1.5 Research Hypothesis

The following null hypothesis will be tested:

H₀: There is no statistically significant relationship between citizens’ perceptions of electronic election-result processes and their confidence in politics during Nigeria’s 2023 general election.

1.6 Significance of the Study

This study is significant to INEC, political parties, policymakers, election observers, civil society organisations, researchers and the Nigerian electorate. Its findings may contribute to a better understanding of how electronic election-result systems relate to public confidence and the perceived credibility of elections.

Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC): The study may provide insights into how citizens perceive the transparency, accessibility and reliability of electronic result publication. Such insights may help INEC improve public communication, strengthen procedures for uploading results and provide clearer explanations when technical difficulties arise. This is important because the performance of electoral institutions is evaluated not only through formal procedures but also through public perceptions of their credibility (Norris, 2014).

Government and policymakers: The study may assist policymakers in evaluating the implications of electoral technology for democratic legitimacy. Its findings may support decisions about electoral reforms, technology procurement, institutional accountability and the legal framework for electronic result transmission. International IDEA (2014) emphasises the importance of assessing the practical, institutional and public implications of electoral technology before and during implementation.

Political parties and candidates: The study may help political parties understand how their supporters and other voters interpret electronic election results. Improved understanding of public perceptions may encourage parties to rely on established electoral and legal procedures when challenging results, communicate responsibly with supporters and contribute to peaceful democratic competition.

Civil society organisations and election observers: The findings may assist organisations involved in voter education, election monitoring and democratic accountability in identifying concerns about result transparency and citizens’ understanding of electoral technology. This could inform public education programmes that explain how electronic accreditation and result-publication systems work, including their limitations.

Citizens and the electorate: The study may encourage informed public discussion about electronic election technology, electoral integrity and political participation. By examining the relationship between citizens’ experiences of the 2023 election and their confidence in politics, it may help clarify the importance of transparency, credible information and institutional accountability in democratic governance.

Students and future researchers: The study may contribute to academic discussions on electoral technology, political trust and democratic consolidation in Nigeria. It may also provide a basis for further research comparing states, geopolitical zones, election cycles or different forms of electoral technology.

1.7 Scope of the Study

The study focuses on the effect of electronic election-result processes on citizen confidence in politics, using Nigeria’s 2023 general election as its case study. It considers the use and public perception of BVAS for voter accreditation and IReV for the online viewing of polling-unit results, with particular attention to perceived transparency, reliability, accessibility and electoral credibility.

The geographical scope is Nigeria, while the period of interest is the 2023 general election and citizens’ subsequent assessments of the electoral process. The study examines citizen confidence through such indicators as trust in INEC, perceptions of the credibility of election results, acceptance of electoral procedures and confidence in democratic institutions. It does not assume that BVAS and IReV constituted a fully electronic voting system; rather, it focuses on the relevant technologies used in voter accreditation and the publication of election results.

1.8 Limitations of the Study

The study may face limitations relating to respondents’ recollection of the 2023 general election. Because data are collected after the election, some respondents may not accurately remember their experiences, exposure to electronic results or reactions to technical difficulties. To reduce this limitation, the research instrument should use clear questions that distinguish between personal experience, information obtained from other people and perceptions formed through news or social media.

Another potential limitation is the diversity of citizens’ political affiliations, geographical locations, educational backgrounds and levels of digital access. These differences may affect how respondents understand and evaluate electronic election-result systems. Where the research is conducted in a limited number of locations, the findings may not be generalisable to every Nigerian citizen. The study should therefore state its sampling approach and geographical coverage clearly.

The study may also encounter difficulty separating the influence of electronic result processes from other factors affecting political confidence. Citizens’ views may be shaped by party loyalty, candidate preference, campaign experiences, economic conditions, political communication and broader perceptions of INEC. Accordingly, any statistical relationship identified should be interpreted carefully. Unless the research design supports causal inference, the findings should be presented as evidence of association rather than proof that electronic election-result processes alone caused changes in political confidence.

1.9 Operational Definition of Terms

Electronic election-result processes: The use of digital systems to support the recording, transmission, publication or viewing of election results. In this study, the term primarily refers to the electronic result-publication process associated with IReV during Nigeria’s 2023 general election.

Electronic voting: A broad term for the use of electronic technology in one or more stages of an election. In this study, it is used in the broader sense of electoral technology, with the specific distinction that Nigeria’s 2023 election used BVAS for voter accreditation and IReV for viewing polling-unit results rather than a nationwide system in which citizens cast ballots electronically.

Citizen confidence in politics: The extent to which citizens trust political institutions and believe that political processes, particularly elections, are credible, fair and responsive to their participation. It may be measured through respondents’ reported trust in INEC, perceptions of electoral credibility, acceptance of electoral procedures and confidence in democratic institutions.

Electoral credibility: The extent to which citizens perceive an election as transparent, fair, accurate and consistent with established electoral rules.

Transparency: The degree to which electoral procedures and result information are accessible, understandable and open to public scrutiny.

Reliability: The extent to which citizens perceive electronic election systems to function consistently and produce or publish information accurately and dependably.

Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC): The Nigerian institution constitutionally responsible for organising and supervising federal and state elections and other electoral processes within its legal mandate.

Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS): The electronic system deployed by INEC to verify and accredit voters using biometric authentication, including fingerprint and facial recognition capabilities.

INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV): The online platform intended to make scanned polling-unit result sheets available for public viewing. It is distinct from a system that automatically determines or declares the final election result.

Political participation: Citizens’ involvement in political processes, including voting, political discussion, engagement with political institutions and other lawful forms of civic activity.

Project – Effect of E-Voting Result on Citizen Confidence in Politics: A Case Study of 2023 General Election.