Project – Electronic Transmission of Election Results and Public Trust in Electoral Institutions: An Assessment of Voter Experiences During the 2023 General Elections in Selected Local Government Areas of Nigeria.

CHAPTER ONE

GENERAL INTRODUCTION

Topic: Electronic Transmission of Election Results and Public Trust in Electoral Institutions: An Assessment of Voter Experiences During the 2023 General Elections in Selected Local Government Areas of Nigeria

1.1 Background to the Study

Elections constitute a fundamental mechanism through which citizens participate in democratic governance, choose political representatives, and hold elected officials accountable. In representative democracies, the credibility of an election depends not only on the freedom of voters to make choices but also on the accuracy, transparency, and acceptability of the processes through which votes are counted, transmitted, collated, and declared. When citizens believe that election results accurately reflect their choices, they are more likely to regard electoral institutions as legitimate and to accept electoral outcomes, including those that do not favour their preferred candidates. Conversely, doubts about the integrity of election administration can weaken confidence in democratic institutions and generate disputes over the legitimacy of elected governments. Norris (2014) explains that electoral integrity involves the application of democratic principles throughout the electoral cycle, while International IDEA (2014) emphasises that credible elections require effective administration, transparency, accountability, and public confidence in electoral processes.

The relationship between electoral technology and public trust has become increasingly important as electoral management bodies adopt digital tools to address longstanding problems associated with manual election administration. Electronic transmission of election results generally refers to the electronic transfer of polling-unit results or related electoral data from the point of counting to designated election-management systems. Such arrangements can reduce opportunities for unauthorised alteration during the movement of results, improve the speed of information dissemination, and enable citizens and political stakeholders to compare published results with records generated at polling units. However, technology does not automatically guarantee electoral credibility; its effectiveness depends on appropriate legal rules, reliable infrastructure, trained personnel, transparent procedures, and accessible information. The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA, 2014) identifies transparency and effective electoral management as important elements of electoral integrity, while Norris (2014) demonstrates the broader significance of institutional performance and public perceptions in determining the credibility of elections.

In Nigeria, public concern about electoral credibility has historically included allegations of vote manipulation, result alteration, procedural irregularities, logistical weaknesses, and inadequate transparency in the collation process. These concerns have made electoral reforms and the deployment of technology significant issues in debates about democratic consolidation. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), as the constitutionally established body responsible for organising federal and state elections, has introduced technological measures intended to strengthen voter accreditation and improve the management and visibility of polling-unit results. The European Union Election Observation Mission (EU EOM, 2023) reported that technological innovations generated considerable public interest ahead of the 2023 elections, particularly because the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) were expected to support electoral transparency and confidence. These developments made the 2023 general elections an important case for examining whether the adoption of electoral technology translated into greater public trust in electoral institutions.

The legal and administrative framework governing the 2023 general elections also placed electronic technology at the centre of election administration. The Electoral Act 2022 provided for the use of technological devices in voter accreditation and addressed the transfer of election results in the manner prescribed by INEC. In addition, INEC’s Regulations and Guidelines for the Conduct of Elections 2022 included procedures for electronic transmission of results and uploading result forms to the IReV portal. These arrangements were intended to improve the transparency of the electoral process and support public verification of polling-unit results. Nevertheless, the existence of legal provisions and technological platforms does not, by itself, establish that voters experienced the process as transparent or trustworthy. The relevant question is whether the technology was implemented reliably and whether citizens could access and understand the information it provided. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC, 2022) established the applicable operational procedures, while the European Union Election Observation Mission (EU EOM, 2023) assessed how the implementation of election technology affected transparency and public confidence during the elections.

The 2023 general elections, conducted on 25 February and 18 March, therefore provide an important context for evaluating the relationship between electronic transmission of election results and public trust. Expectations were high that the use of BVAS and IReV would strengthen transparency, limit opportunities for manipulation, and improve public access to polling-unit result forms. However, observers documented problems with the implementation of election technology, including delays in the appearance of presidential election result forms on IReV. The EU EOM (2023) concluded that the lack of transparency surrounding aspects of election technology and the delayed uploading of presidential results contributed to declining public trust in the credibility of the elections. Similarly, the joint election observation mission of the National Democratic Institute and the International Republican Institute identified significant logistical, technological, and communication failures among the factors that prevented the elections from meeting citizens’ reasonable expectations (NDI/IRI, 2023). These findings demonstrate why voter experiences should be examined rather than assuming that the introduction of technology necessarily produces confidence in electoral institutions.

Public trust in electoral institutions refers to the extent to which citizens believe that bodies responsible for organising and supervising elections are competent, impartial, transparent, accountable, and committed to applying electoral rules fairly. Trust is influenced by both the actual performance of institutions and citizens’ perceptions of how those institutions behave. For instance, voters may develop confidence when election officials communicate clearly, polling-unit results are accessible, and the figures displayed electronically correspond with the results recorded at polling units. Conversely, unexplained delays, technical failures, inconsistent information, or inadequate communication may create suspicion, even where the underlying cause is operational rather than deliberate manipulation. Norris (2014) explains that perceptions of electoral integrity are connected to broader judgments about democratic institutions, while the EU EOM (2023) specifically linked weaknesses in the implementation and transparency of election technology in Nigeria to reduced confidence in the 2023 electoral process.

Voter experiences are particularly important because the impact of electronic transmission may differ across geographical locations, political contexts, and levels of access to digital information. Voters in some local government areas may have observed relatively smooth polling-unit procedures and timely access to results, while those in other areas may have encountered connectivity problems, delays, conflicting reports, or uncertainty about the relationship between electronically published results and the official collation process. These experiences can shape citizens’ judgments about INEC and other institutions involved in electoral administration. The NDI/IRI (2023) report documented technological and communication challenges during the elections, while the EU EOM (2023) highlighted the relationship between delayed result uploads, transparency concerns, and public trust. Against this background, assessing voter experiences in selected local government areas of Nigeria can provide evidence about whether electronic transmission of election results strengthened confidence, had limited influence, or contributed to doubts about electoral institutions. The study is therefore concerned not simply with the availability of election technology but with its perceived reliability, transparency, accessibility, and implications for public trust during the 2023 general elections.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

The adoption of electronic transmission and publication of election results was widely regarded as an important step towards improving electoral transparency in Nigeria. Through technological arrangements associated with BVAS and the IReV portal, INEC sought to make polling-unit result forms more accessible and reduce concerns about possible alterations during the collation process. These measures created public expectations that the 2023 general elections would demonstrate improvements in the credibility and accountability of electoral administration. However, the experience of the elections raised questions about whether the promised benefits of electronic transmission were achieved in practice. The EU EOM (2023) observed that delayed uploading of presidential election results and limited transparency in the implementation of election technology contributed to declining public trust. The problem, therefore, is the apparent gap between the expectations generated by electronic transmission and the concerns that emerged from its implementation during the 2023 elections.

A second problem concerns the reliability and accessibility of the electronic results process. For electronic transmission to strengthen public trust, election officials must be able to operate the relevant devices correctly, network and technical challenges must be managed, and result forms must be uploaded and made accessible within a reasonable period. Where these conditions are not met, voters may experience uncertainty about the status of results and may question whether the electronic system has achieved its intended purpose. INEC’s report on the 2023 general elections acknowledged that network challenges and other operational issues affected the timely uploading of some results, while insufficient training of some ad hoc personnel contributed to errors and confusion in the use of BVAS (INEC, 2024). These difficulties raise an important research concern: whether voters’ direct or indirect experiences of technological delays, accessibility problems, and communication failures influenced their confidence in the institutions responsible for conducting the elections.

A third problem is that the existence of electronic transmission technology does not necessarily translate into public trust. Citizens may evaluate electoral institutions based on whether the technology functions as expected, whether officials explain technical difficulties, whether the published results can be checked against polling-unit records, and whether concerns raised by voters and political stakeholders receive credible responses. Consequently, public trust may depend not only on the use of technology but also on the transparency and accountability surrounding its operation. The NDI/IRI (2023) election observation report identified technological and communication failures among the factors that undermined the performance of the 2023 elections, while the EU EOM (2023) emphasised that transparency weaknesses and delayed result uploads damaged confidence in electoral credibility. The central problem is therefore to determine how voters interpreted the electronic transmission process and whether their experiences were associated with higher or lower trust in INEC and other relevant electoral institutions.

A further problem is the need to understand voter experiences across selected local government areas rather than treating public opinion about the 2023 elections as uniform throughout Nigeria. Differences in connectivity, election administration, access to information, local political circumstances, and citizens’ exposure to the results-viewing process may have produced different experiences and levels of confidence. Without examining voters’ experiences in defined local government areas, it may be difficult to establish which aspects of electronic transmission were perceived as effective and which created doubts about electoral institutions. Although existing election observation reports provide valuable national-level assessments, a focused study of selected local government areas can provide additional evidence about how voters experienced the process and how those experiences related to institutional trust. Accordingly, this study seeks to assess the relationship between electronic transmission of election results and public trust in electoral institutions during the 2023 general elections, with particular attention to perceived transparency, reliability, accessibility, and the experiences of voters in the selected areas.

1.3 Aim and Objectives of the Study

The main aim of this study is to assess the relationship between electronic transmission of election results and public trust in electoral institutions, focusing on voter experiences during the 2023 general elections in selected local government areas of Nigeria.

The specific objectives are to:

1. Examine voters’ experiences with the electronic transmission and online publication of election results during the 2023 general elections in selected local government areas of Nigeria.

2. Assess voters’ perceptions of the transparency, reliability, and accessibility of electronic election-result transmission during the 2023 general elections.

3. Determine the level of public trust in INEC and other relevant electoral institutions following voters’ experiences with electronic transmission of election results.

4. Examine the relationship between voters’ experiences with electronic transmission of election results and public trust in electoral institutions during the 2023 general elections.

1.4 Research Questions

The study will be guided by the following research questions:

1. What were voters’ experiences with the electronic transmission and online publication of election results during the 2023 general elections in selected local government areas of Nigeria?

2. How did voters perceive the transparency, reliability, and accessibility of electronic election-result transmission during the 2023 general elections?

3. What was the level of public trust in INEC and other relevant electoral institutions following voters’ experiences with electronic transmission of election results?

4. What relationship existed between voters’ experiences with electronic transmission of election results and public trust in electoral institutions during the 2023 general elections?

1.5 Research Hypothesis

The following null hypothesis will be tested at the 0.05 level of significance:

H₀: There is no statistically significant relationship between voters’ experiences with electronic transmission of election results and public trust in electoral institutions during the 2023 general elections in selected local government areas of Nigeria.

1.6 Significance of the Study

This study is significant because it examines the extent to which electronic transmission of election results, as experienced by voters, relates to public trust in electoral institutions. Its findings are expected to contribute to discussions on electoral reform, technology-assisted election administration, democratic accountability, and public confidence in Nigeria’s electoral system.

Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC): The study may provide useful evidence on how voters perceived the electronic transmission of results during the 2023 general elections. The findings could help INEC identify areas requiring improvement, particularly in the reliability of technological systems, timely publication of results, voter communication, and the handling of technical difficulties. Understanding voters’ experiences may also support more effective planning, testing, training, and public information strategies for future elections.

Government and policymakers: The study may assist policymakers in understanding how electoral technology and institutional accountability relate to public confidence. Its findings could inform decisions concerning electoral legislation, investment in election technology, institutional oversight, and measures to improve the transparency of electoral administration.

Political parties and candidates: Political parties and candidates may benefit from a clearer understanding of how the electronic transmission process shapes voters’ perceptions of fairness and electoral credibility. The findings may encourage greater reliance on verifiable polling-unit records, constructive engagement with electoral authorities, and evidence-based approaches to resolving disputes.

Voters and civil society organisations: The study may help voters and civil society organisations understand the importance of accessible election information, transparent result-management procedures, and public scrutiny of electoral institutions. It may also support voter education and citizen monitoring initiatives aimed at promoting informed participation in democratic processes.

Electoral observers and the media: Election observers and media organisations may find the study useful in developing more effective methods for documenting voter experiences, reporting technological failures, and evaluating the transparency of result transmission. The findings may also help distinguish between technical problems, communication failures, and broader concerns about institutional credibility.

Researchers and students: The study may contribute to academic literature on election technology, electoral integrity, and institutional trust in Nigeria. It may serve as a reference for further research into electronic result transmission, voter perceptions, election administration, and the relationship between technological innovation and democratic legitimacy.

1.7 Scope of the Study

The study focuses on electronic transmission of election results and public trust in electoral institutions, using voter experiences during Nigeria’s 2023 general elections as its central concern.

Content scope: The study covers voters’ experiences with electronic transmission and online publication of polling-unit results; perceptions of transparency, reliability, and accessibility; public trust in INEC and other relevant electoral institutions; and the relationship between experiences of electronic transmission and institutional trust.

Geographical scope: The study will be conducted in selected local government areas of Nigeria. The specific local government areas should be identified in the research methodology based on the study’s geographical focus, accessibility, and sampling requirements. Findings will be interpreted in relation to the selected areas rather than assumed to represent every local government area in the country.

Temporal scope: The study focuses on the 2023 general elections, comprising the presidential and National Assembly elections held on 25 February 2023 and the governorship and State House of Assembly elections held on 18 March 2023. The study may draw on relevant reports and literature published before and after the elections to contextualise voters’ experiences.

Subject scope: The study concerns voters who participated in or directly experienced the electoral process in the selected areas. It focuses on their perceptions and reported experiences rather than attempting to determine the legal validity of election results or independently establish whether particular election outcomes were manipulated.

1.8 Limitations of the Study

One potential limitation is recall bias. Since the study concerns elections conducted in 2023, respondents may not remember every detail of their experiences, particularly the timing of result uploads or specific technical problems. To minimise this limitation, the study should use clear questions and, where appropriate, corroborate respondents’ accounts with documented election reports.

A second limitation is political bias. Voters’ opinions about electronic transmission and electoral institutions may be influenced by party affiliation, preferred candidates, or satisfaction with election outcomes. The study should therefore use neutral questions, protect respondents’ confidentiality, and avoid assuming that support for a political party necessarily determines an individual’s views about election technology.

A third limitation concerns variations in digital access and awareness. Not every voter may have accessed the IReV portal or personally observed the electronic transmission process. Some respondents may base their views on information received from the media, political parties, friends, or civil society organisations. The study should distinguish between direct experience and indirect awareness when interpreting the results.

A fourth limitation is geographical coverage. Because the study focuses on selected local government areas, its findings may not fully represent the experiences of voters in all parts of Nigeria. Differences in infrastructure, election administration, and local circumstances may limit generalisation. The study should clearly define its sample and interpret the findings within the boundaries of the selected locations.

Finally, access to official records and reliable documentation may affect the extent to which respondents’ experiences can be independently verified. This limitation can be addressed by consulting relevant INEC publications and credible election observation reports alongside the primary data collected from respondents.

1.9 Operational Definition of Terms

Electronic Transmission of Election Results: The electronic transfer of election-result information from polling units to designated election-management systems in accordance with applicable electoral procedures. In this study, it includes voters’ experiences and perceptions of the transmission and online publication of polling-unit result forms during the 2023 general elections.

Public Trust: The degree to which voters believe that electoral institutions are competent, transparent, impartial, accountable, and capable of administering elections credibly.

Electoral Institutions: Organisations and bodies responsible for organising, regulating, supervising, or supporting elections. In this study, the term primarily refers to INEC and other institutions directly involved in the electoral process.

Voter Experiences: The direct observations, interactions, perceptions, and information-based assessments through which voters formed opinions about electronic transmission and publication of election results during the 2023 general elections.

Transparency: The extent to which election procedures and results are open to public scrutiny, accessible to relevant stakeholders, and capable of being checked against official records.

Reliability: The extent to which electronic result-transmission systems and related procedures operate consistently and accurately, with minimal technical disruption or unexplained discrepancies.

Accessibility: The extent to which voters and other relevant stakeholders can obtain and understand electronically published election-result information.

Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS): The technological device deployed by INEC for voter accreditation using biometric verification and used in the 2023 elections to scan and upload polling-unit result forms to the IReV portal.

INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV): The online platform established by INEC for public viewing of uploaded polling-unit result forms. In this study, it is considered in relation to voters’ access to election-result information and perceptions of transparency.

2023 General Elections: The Nigerian presidential and National Assembly elections held on 25 February 2023 and the governorship and State House of Assembly elections held on 18 March 2023.

1.10 Organisation of the Study

The study is organised into five chapters.

Chapter One presents the general introduction, comprising the background to the study, statement of the problem, aim and objectives, research questions, research hypothesis, significance, scope, limitations, and operational definitions of terms.

Chapter Two reviews relevant literature on electronic transmission of election results, electoral integrity, public trust in electoral institutions, voter experiences, and technology-assisted election administration. It also examines relevant theoretical perspectives, empirical studies, and the research gap.

Chapter Three presents the research methodology, including the research design, population of the study, sample size and sampling techniques, research instrument, validity and reliability procedures, methods of data collection, and techniques for analysing the data.

Chapter Four presents and analyses the data collected for the study, answers the research questions, tests the hypothesis, and discusses the findings in relation to the objectives and relevant literature.

Chapter Five presents the summary of the findings, conclusion, recommendations, limitations encountered during the research process, and suggestions for further studies.

Project – Electronic Transmission of Election Results and Public Trust in Electoral Institutions: An Assessment of Voter Experiences During the 2023 General Elections in Selected Local Government Areas of Nigeria.