Project – Political Party Dominance and Democratic Consolidation in Nigeria: An Analysis of APC General Election Strategy

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background to the Study

Political parties constitute one of the most important institutional foundations of representative democracy. In democratic political systems, parties perform several functions, including recruiting political leaders, aggregating and articulating societal interests, mobilising voters, structuring electoral competition, developing policy alternatives, and providing mechanisms through which citizens participate in government. The quality of democratic governance is therefore closely associated with the strength, organisation, institutionalisation and behaviour of political parties. Where political parties are internally democratic, ideologically coherent and responsive to citizens, they can contribute significantly to political stability and democratic consolidation. Conversely, where parties are dominated by political elites, characterised by weak internal democracy, excessive monetisation and personalisation, they may undermine democratic development even when elections are regularly conducted (Ikeanyibe, 2014; Dode, 2010).

Nigeria provides an important context for examining the relationship between political party dominance and democratic consolidation. Since the restoration of civilian government in 1999, the country has sustained its longest uninterrupted period of constitutional democratic rule. The Fourth Republic has witnessed regular presidential, legislative and gubernatorial elections, peaceful transfers of power, the emergence of new political parties and repeated changes in the balance of political power. Nevertheless, the persistence of electoral malpractice, political violence, vote buying, weak party institutionalisation, elite domination, internal party conflicts and low citizen trust continues to raise questions concerning the depth and sustainability of Nigeria’s democratic consolidation. Recent scholarship observes that although Nigeria formally operates a multiparty system, electoral competition has increasingly been dominated by two major parties, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC), while many smaller parties have remained electorally weak (Dan-Azumi, 2024).

The history of political party dominance in Nigeria predates the APC. From 1999 to 2015, the PDP occupied a particularly dominant position in Nigerian politics. It controlled the presidency throughout the period and maintained substantial influence in the National Assembly and at state level. The dominance of the PDP, however, was challenged by growing public dissatisfaction, internal factionalism, elite defections and the emergence of a more coordinated opposition. The eventual formation of the APC in 2013 represented a major development in Nigeria’s party system. The APC emerged from the merger of several opposition political forces, particularly the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). The merger created a broader opposition platform capable of competing nationally against the PDP.

The 2015 general election consequently became a watershed in Nigeria’s democratic history. Muhammadu Buhari of the APC defeated the incumbent president, Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP, making the election the first instance in Nigeria’s history in which an opposition political party defeated an incumbent governing party at the presidential level and achieved a peaceful transfer of national political power. The APC also obtained a majority in both chambers of the National Assembly. This development was significant because democratic consolidation requires not only the periodic holding of elections but also the possibility that political power can change hands through electoral competition. The 2015 transfer therefore demonstrated that incumbency could be challenged and defeated under Nigeria’s Fourth Republic.

The rise of the APC also illustrates the importance of opposition coordination in electoral competition. The party’s emergence was not simply the result of the popularity of one candidate; it was linked to the strategic combination of opposition parties, political elites, regional networks and former members of the PDP. Dan-Azumi (2024) explains that the APC’s emergence was strengthened by the movement of prominent PDP politicians and legislators into the new opposition platform. The merger therefore enabled the APC to pool organisational resources and political networks that had previously been dispersed among several parties.

The APC’s electoral strategy in 2015 was consequently built around several interconnected factors. These included opposition coalition-building, candidate popularity, regional mobilisation, elite defections, dissatisfaction with the incumbent administration, campaign messaging and the ability to present the party as a credible alternative to the PDP. The APC also benefited from the perception that the PDP administration had become weakened by internal divisions and governance-related criticisms. Akande and Ojo (2018) argue that the PDP’s eventual loss of power was associated with declining party vision, organisational coherence, reputation and performance, while opposition interests gradually consolidated around the APC.

Following its victory in 2015, the APC moved from being an opposition coalition into the position of Nigeria’s ruling party. This transformation generated a new dimension of political party dominance. The question was no longer whether an opposition party could defeat the PDP, but whether the APC could institutionalise its electoral advantage and maintain national political dominance. In the 2019 general election, the APC successfully retained the presidency, with Muhammadu Buhari defeating the PDP candidate Atiku Abubakar. The party also remained a major force in the National Assembly and state-level politics. Research on Nigeria’s party system indicates that the 2019 elections were largely a contest between the APC and PDP despite the existence of numerous registered political parties.

The 2019 election also revealed important dimensions of the APC’s electoral strategy. As an incumbent party, APC’s strategy differed from its 2015 opposition strategy. It could draw upon the advantages associated with incumbency, including national political visibility, established party structures, access to extensive political networks and the ability to mobilise political actors across different levels of government. At the same time, the party had to manage internal disagreements, candidate-selection controversies, defections and competition among powerful political actors within its ranks. Adebiyi (2019), in examining the APC’s 2018 primary elections, found that candidate selection was affected by conflicts, intrigues and perceived disregard for established party rules, raising concerns about the state of internal party democracy within the organisation.

The role of money in Nigerian electoral politics further complicates the analysis of party dominance. Money politics, vote buying, campaign expenditure and the financialisation of party primaries have become recurrent features of electoral competition. Sule (2022) found that money played a substantial role in the 2019 party primaries of both the APC and PDP and argued that excessive financial influence could undermine candidate selection and the credibility of the electoral process. Such developments are important for understanding party dominance because a party may strengthen its electoral position through financial and organisational resources without necessarily strengthening democratic institutions.

The 2023 general election represented another important stage in the development of APC dominance. Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the APC presidential candidate, won the presidential election, while the APC also secured substantial representation in the National Assembly. Official election records published by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) provide the presidential and legislative results for the 2023 elections and constitute an important empirical basis for assessing the party’s electoral performance. The 2023 election was particularly significant because the APC achieved presidential succession within the same party: power moved from Muhammadu Buhari, who had completed two terms, to another APC candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The APC’s 2023 strategy differed in important ways from its 2015 strategy. In 2015, the APC was principally an opposition coalition seeking to dislodge a sixteen-year incumbent party. By 2023, it was an incumbent party seeking to preserve control of the federal government after eight years in office. This required a strategy based on continuity, party organisation, candidate positioning, coalition-building, regional and demographic mobilisation, elite negotiation and the management of internal party competition. The emergence of strong opposition candidates from the PDP and Labour Party also transformed the electoral environment into a more competitive three-way presidential contest. The 2023 outcome therefore provides an important case for examining how an incumbent dominant party seeks to retain power when faced with significant opposition competition.

Party dominance, however, should not automatically be equated with democratic consolidation. Political dominance can have both positive and negative implications for democracy. On one hand, a dominant party may contribute to political stability, policy continuity, institutional coordination and predictable governance. A strong party organisation can also facilitate the mobilisation of citizens and encourage long-term political participation. On the other hand, prolonged dominance may weaken opposition parties, reduce electoral competitiveness, encourage political defections and create opportunities for the ruling party to exert excessive influence over state institutions. Carty (2022) argues that sustained party dominance raises important questions about the quality of electoral competition and the capacity of democratic systems to maintain meaningful alternatives to the governing party.

This distinction is especially important in Nigeria because the country has formally retained a multiparty democratic system while political competition has become increasingly concentrated around major parties. Dan-Azumi (2024) observes that Nigeria’s multiparty system has, in practice, increasingly resembled a two-party system because smaller parties have generally struggled to achieve electoral viability. The author further argues that Nigerian parties are often characterised by weak ideological differentiation, fluid membership, elite interests, defections and limited institutionalisation.

The relationship between party dominance and democratic consolidation is therefore complex. Democratic consolidation is not simply the survival of an elected government. It involves the institutionalisation of democratic norms, acceptance of electoral uncertainty, respect for constitutional rules, protection of political rights, peaceful competition and the willingness of political actors to accept electoral defeat. Fatai (2018) notes that although elections alone cannot guarantee democratic consolidation, credible elections remain a critical mechanism through which democratic institutions and principles become institutionalised.

Political parties are central to this process because they determine who competes for political office and how citizens are mobilised. Internal party democracy is particularly important. Ikeanyibe (2014) argues that weak internal democracy and problematic candidate nomination processes can undermine party institutionalisation and negatively affect democratic consolidation. Consequently, an analysis of APC dominance must consider not only the party’s ability to win elections but also the strategies through which it selects candidates, mobilises voters, forms alliances, manages internal factions and competes with opposition parties.

The issue of party dominance is also connected to the problem of elite politics in Nigeria. Nigerian political parties have frequently been criticised for functioning more as vehicles for political office-seeking than as ideologically grounded organisations representing clearly differentiated programmes. Dan-Azumi (2024) observes that major Nigerian parties are often loose combinations of powerful interest groups seeking political power and access to state resources. Similarly, research on Nigerian party politics has highlighted elite capture, godfatherism, personalisation and weak organisational institutionalisation as continuing challenges to democratic development.

The APC therefore provides a particularly relevant case for examining the relationship between electoral strategy and democratic consolidation. Its history covers an unusual transition from opposition coalition to ruling-party dominance, followed by presidential re-election and intra-party succession. From 2015 to 2023, the party successfully competed for and retained the presidency while maintaining substantial legislative and subnational influence. Its electoral experience consequently provides an opportunity to investigate whether party dominance strengthens or weakens the institutional foundations of democracy.

The contemporary political environment makes this question even more important. As Nigeria moves toward another general election cycle, the APC’s long period in national power and the continued fragmentation of opposition forces have renewed debates about political competition, one-party tendencies and the future of multiparty democracy. Recent reporting indicates that the APC has strengthened its position through political defections and expanded its control at the state level, while opposition forces remain fragmented. These developments make it necessary to examine the historical and strategic foundations of APC dominance rather than treating its electoral success as an isolated outcome.

Against this background, the present study examines political party dominance and democratic consolidation in Nigeria, with particular emphasis on the general election strategy of the All Progressives Congress. The study focuses primarily on the APC’s strategies across the 2015, 2019 and 2023 general elections in order to understand how the party built, maintained and reproduced electoral dominance. It also considers the implications of those strategies for electoral competition, internal party democracy, opposition effectiveness and democratic consolidation in Nigeria.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Nigeria’s return to democratic government in 1999 generated considerable expectations that sustained constitutional rule, regular elections and competitive political parties would gradually strengthen democratic institutions. More than two decades later, however, democratic consolidation remains incomplete. Although elections have been held regularly and power has changed hands between major political parties, the political system continues to experience electoral violence, vote buying, monetisation of politics, weak internal party democracy, political defections, elite domination and declining public confidence in political institutions. These problems raise questions about whether electoral continuity has been accompanied by genuine democratic institutionalisation.

One of the major developments in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic has been the emergence of dominant political parties. The PDP dominated national politics from 1999 until its defeat in 2015, after which the APC emerged as the new dominant political force. The transition from PDP dominance to APC dominance demonstrated the possibility of electoral alternation but also raised concerns about whether Nigeria was merely replacing one dominant party with another. Research on Nigerian political parties indicates that the country’s multiparty system has increasingly become dominated by two major parties, while smaller parties have struggled to establish sustainable electoral bases (Dan-Azumi, 2024).

The central problem, therefore, is not simply that the APC has won elections. The more important issue is how the APC has achieved and maintained electoral dominance and what the consequences of those strategies are for democratic consolidation. The party’s victory in 2015 was facilitated by the merger of opposition parties, elite defections, public dissatisfaction with the PDP and the ability to mobilise support around a nationally competitive platform. The successful retention of presidential power in 2019 and the succession to another APC president in 2023 suggest that the party developed organisational and electoral capacities that enabled it to survive beyond a single electoral cycle.

However, the mechanisms through which this dominance has been achieved have generated democratic concerns. Political party dominance can weaken electoral competition when opposition parties become fragmented, financially disadvantaged or organisationally incapable of challenging the ruling party. Nigeria’s experience demonstrates that smaller political parties frequently struggle to translate formal registration into meaningful electoral competition. The dominance of APC and PDP in national elections has consequently created a political environment in which electoral choice may exist formally while substantive competition remains concentrated among a small number of political organisations.

A related problem concerns the internal organisation of the APC itself. The party was created through a merger of previously independent political organisations and therefore brought together politicians with different political histories, interests and ambitions. Although the merger strengthened the opposition’s capacity to challenge the PDP in 2015, maintaining unity within such a coalition has been difficult. Internal disputes over leadership, candidate selection, zoning, party primaries and political succession have periodically threatened the party’s cohesion. Evidence from the APC’s 2018 primary elections indicates that candidate selection was affected by conflicts and controversies surrounding compliance with party rules, raising questions about internal party democracy (Adebiyi, 2019).

The monetisation of party politics represents another dimension of the problem. The increasing importance of financial resources in party primaries and general elections can give wealthy political actors disproportionate influence over candidate selection and electoral mobilisation. Sule (2022) found substantial evidence of money politics in the APC and PDP primaries preceding the 2019 general election. When financial resources become central to electoral success, political competition may shift from policy-based persuasion to resource-based mobilisation, potentially reducing the accountability of political parties to ordinary citizens.

There is also a problem concerning the relationship between incumbency and electoral advantage. An incumbent dominant party may possess political networks, established structures, visibility and access to influential political actors that opposition parties lack. While incumbency does not automatically imply electoral malpractice, sustained control of political institutions can make competition more unequal if institutional safeguards are weak. This is particularly important in Nigeria where political defections can rapidly change the balance of power at federal and state levels. Research on Nigeria’s party system identifies party switching and the movement of politicians between parties as recurring features of political competition (Dan-Azumi, 2024).

Furthermore, the dominance of major parties raises concerns about ideological development. A healthy democratic party system should provide citizens with meaningful choices among alternative programmes, policies and visions of governance. However, Nigerian parties have often been criticised for weak ideological differentiation and for functioning primarily as vehicles for gaining political office. Dan-Azumi (2024) observes that the major Nigerian parties do not possess clearly differentiated ideologies and are often better understood as coalitions of political interests seeking access to political power. This situation can limit the capacity of elections to produce substantive policy alternatives.

The problem also extends to democratic consolidation. If party dominance is accompanied by strong institutions, respect for electoral rules, effective opposition and internal party democracy, it may contribute to stability. If it is accompanied by weakened opposition, political patronage, electoral manipulation and excessive concentration of power, it may undermine democratic consolidation. Nigerian scholarship has consistently identified weak party institutionalisation, godfatherism, personalisation and inadequate internal democracy as obstacles to democratic consolidation (Dode, 2010; Ikeanyibe, 2014).

The 2023 general election further illustrates the complexity of the problem. The APC retained the presidency despite facing strong opposition from the PDP and the Labour Party. The emergence of Peter Obi and the Labour Party as a significant electoral force demonstrated that Nigeria’s political environment was not entirely closed to new forms of political mobilisation. At the same time, the fragmentation of opposition votes contributed to an electoral environment in which the APC could secure victory without obtaining an overwhelming majority of the total presidential vote. The outcome therefore raises important questions concerning whether electoral victory by a dominant party necessarily reflects broad-based political support or can also be facilitated by opposition fragmentation.

Another problem is the limited empirical attention given to the strategy of party dominance across successive general elections. Existing studies have examined Nigerian political parties, democratic consolidation, internal party democracy and individual elections. However, there remains a need to examine systematically how the APC’s general election strategy evolved from 2015 through 2019 and 2023 and how those strategies relate to the wider process of democratic consolidation. Understanding this evolution is important because the APC operated under different strategic conditions in each election: it was an opposition coalition in 2015, an incumbent seeking re-election in 2019, and a ruling party managing presidential succession in 2023.

The problem this study addresses, therefore, is the tension between electoral success and democratic consolidation. The APC’s ability to dominate national electoral politics may demonstrate organisational effectiveness, strategic adaptability and political competitiveness. At the same time, prolonged dominance may raise concerns about opposition weakness, internal party democracy, political defections, elite capture and the concentration of political power. The study consequently seeks to determine whether APC’s electoral strategies have strengthened Nigeria’s democratic institutions or contributed to patterns that may weaken democratic consolidation.

1.3 Aim of the Study

The main aim of this study is to examine the relationship between political party dominance and democratic consolidation in Nigeria, with particular emphasis on the general election strategies of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

1.4 Objectives of the Study

The specific objectives are to:

1. examine the major general election strategies adopted by the All Progressives Congress in the 2015, 2019 and 2023 general elections in Nigeria;
2. assess the influence of APC’s organisational and mobilisation strategies on its electoral dominance in Nigeria;
3. examine the role of coalition-building, political defections and elite networks in the electoral success of the APC;
4. assess the relationship between APC political party dominance and democratic consolidation in Nigeria; and

1.5 Research Questions

The study will be guided by the following research questions:

1. What major general election strategies did the All Progressives Congress adopt during the 2015, 2019 and 2023 general elections?
2. To what extent did APC’s organisational and voter mobilisation strategies contribute to its electoral dominance?
3. What role did coalition-building, political defections and elite networks play in the electoral success of the APC?
4. What relationship exists between APC political party dominance and democratic consolidation in Nigeria?

1.6 Research Hypothesis

The following null hypothesis will be tested:

H₀: There is no significant relationship between All Progressives Congress electoral dominance and democratic consolidation in Nigeria.

1.7 Significance of the Study

This study will be significant to scholars of political science, public administration, international relations and African studies because it will contribute to the literature on political parties, electoral politics, party dominance and democratic consolidation. By examining the APC across three successive general elections, the study will provide a longitudinal perspective on the evolution of party dominance in Nigeria.

The study will also be useful to policymakers and electoral institutions, particularly the Independent National Electoral Commission, because it will identify strategic and institutional factors influencing electoral competition. INEC is constitutionally responsible for organising elections and maintaining important electoral records; consequently, understanding the dynamics of party competition can contribute to discussions on electoral reform and institutional strengthening.

Political parties will benefit from the study because its findings may highlight the importance of internal democracy, transparent candidate selection, organisational institutionalisation and issue-based mobilisation. The study may help political parties understand that long-term electoral viability requires more than winning elections; it also requires institutional structures capable of maintaining public confidence and democratic legitimacy.

Civil society organisations and democracy advocates may also find the study useful because it will provide evidence concerning the relationship between ruling-party dominance and the quality of political competition. The findings may assist civil society organisations in identifying areas where electoral reforms, party reforms and civic engagement are necessary.

For students and researchers, the study will provide an academic reference for future research on APC, Nigerian electoral politics, party dominance, opposition politics and democratic consolidation. It will also provide a basis for comparative studies of dominant-party systems in other African democracies.

Finally, the study will be relevant to Nigerian citizens because democratic consolidation ultimately depends on the ability of citizens to participate meaningfully in political processes and to choose among credible alternatives. By examining the strategies through which a major political party achieves and maintains dominance, the study will contribute to a better understanding of the opportunities and limitations facing democratic participation in Nigeria.

1.8 Scope of the Study

The study focuses on political party dominance and democratic consolidation in Nigeria, with particular emphasis on the general election strategy of the All Progressives Congress. The study covers the period from 2015 to 2023, encompassing the 2015, 2019 and 2023 general elections.

The choice of 2015 is significant because it marked the APC’s emergence as the governing party following its historic defeat of the PDP. The 2019 election is examined because it represented the APC’s first major attempt to retain presidential power. The 2023 election is included because it demonstrated the party’s capacity to retain national power through internal presidential succession from Muhammadu Buhari to Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The study focuses on major strategic dimensions including party organisation, voter mobilisation, campaign communication, coalition-building, political defections, candidate selection, elite networks and incumbency advantages. It also examines how these factors relate to democratic consolidation, particularly in terms of electoral competitiveness, opposition effectiveness, internal party democracy, political participation and institutional stability.

Although the study discusses the wider Nigerian party system, its principal focus is the APC. The PDP, Labour Party and other political parties are considered primarily where their activities are necessary for understanding APC’s electoral strategy and competitive environment.

1.9 Operational Definition of Terms

Political Party: An organised political association that seeks to influence or control government through participation in elections and the pursuit of political office.

Political Party Dominance: A situation in which one political party consistently possesses greater electoral, organisational or governmental influence than competing parties over a significant period.

Democratic Consolidation: The process through which democratic institutions, rules, values and practices become sufficiently established and accepted by political actors and citizens that democracy becomes the normal and broadly accepted framework for political competition.

Electoral Strategy: The organised set of political actions and techniques employed by a political party or candidate to secure electoral support and win political office. Such strategies may include campaign communication, voter mobilisation, coalition formation, candidate positioning, grassroots organisation and political alliances.

All Progressives Congress (APC): A Nigerian political party formed in 2013 through the merger of several opposition parties and which became the governing party after winning the 2015 presidential election. The party subsequently retained the presidency in 2019 and 2023.

General Election: A nationwide electoral process through which Nigerians elect political representatives to presidential, legislative and other elective offices.

Political Mobilisation: The process of encouraging, organising and directing citizens or political groups to participate in political activities, particularly voting and electoral campaigns.

Political Defection: The movement of an elected politician or political actor from one political party to another.

Internal Party Democracy: The extent to which members of a political party participate meaningfully in decision-making processes, including leadership selection, policy formulation and candidate nomination.

Opposition Party: A political party that does not control the executive government and seeks to challenge the governing party through electoral, legislative and other constitutional means.

Incumbency Advantage: The political, organisational and institutional benefits that may accrue to a party or candidate already controlling government when competing in an election.

Party Institutionalisation: The process through which a political party develops stable structures, rules, procedures, identity and organisational continuity that are not excessively dependent on individual political leaders.

Project – Political Party Dominance and Democratic Consolidation in Nigeria: An Analysis of APC General Election Strategy