Project – The impact of economy growth under former President Muhammadu Buhari’s Administration.

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

• Background to the Study

The economic landscape of Nigeria under President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration (2015-2023) has been a subject of considerable analysis, particularly in the context of economic growth. Various scholars have evaluated the impact of Buhari’s policies on Nigeria’s economic performance, highlighting both achievements and challenges. Notably, the administration’s focus on diversification away from oil dependency has been a key theme in the literature. As observed by Ogujiuba et al. (2018), efforts to promote agriculture and solid minerals aimed to reduce vulnerability to oil price shocks, which historically plagued Nigeria’s economy.

Buhari’s administration also prioritized infrastructure development as a catalyst for economic growth. According to Ayenagbo et al. (2020), substantial investments were made in road, rail, and power sectors, leading to improvements in logistics and productivity. The authors argue that these infrastructural enhancements have had a direct positive correlation with the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which play a crucial role in job creation and economic stability. This aligns with the findings of Okonjo-Iweala (2021), who emphasized the importance of infrastructure in fostering a conducive environment for business operations and attracting foreign investments.

Despite these advancements, Buhari’s tenure faced significant challenges, particularly in the realm of economic management. The country experienced recurring issues of inflation, unemployment, and a rising debt profile. As highlighted by Ugochukwu and Nwankwo (2022), the inflation rate surged during this period, significantly impacting the purchasing power of the average Nigerian. The authors argue that the government’s economic policies, while well-intentioned, often fell short in addressing these pressing issues, leading to a paradox of growth amidst economic hardship.

Moreover, the administration’s approach to economic recovery during the COVID-19 pandemic drew mixed reactions. While some scholars, such as Ibrahim and Tunde (2021), commend the fiscal stimulus measures and social safety nets introduced to cushion the impact of the pandemic, others critique the lack of long-term strategic planning. This dissonance highlights the complexities of governance during crises and the need for a more integrated approach to economic recovery that aligns short-term relief with long-term growth objectives.

In terms of social impacts, Buhari’s economic policies had significant implications for poverty alleviation and income distribution. The World Bank (2022) reported that, despite positive growth figures, poverty rates remained alarmingly high, with millions of Nigerians living below the poverty line. This disparity underscores the need for inclusive growth strategies that prioritize marginalized communities and ensure equitable distribution of resources. Scholars like Adebayo (2023) argue that without a deliberate focus on social equity, economic growth risks exacerbating existing inequalities.

The literature on the impact of economic growth under Muhammadu Buhari’s administration reveals a complex interplay of successes and challenges. While significant strides were made in diversifying the economy and improving infrastructure, persistent issues such as inflation, unemployment, and poverty continue to undermine overall progress. Future research should focus on evaluating the long-term sustainability of these economic policies and exploring pathways for more inclusive and resilient growth in Nigeria.

• Statement of the Problem

The economic trajectory of Nigeria under President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration from 2015 to 2023 presents a multifaceted problem that warrants thorough examination. Despite the government’s commitment to fostering economic growth through various policies, the reality has been marked by persistent economic challenges, including high inflation rates, soaring unemployment, and a staggering debt burden. These issues raise critical questions about the effectiveness of the administration’s strategies and their implications for the overall economic landscape of Nigeria.

One of the primary concerns is the paradox of growth amid hardship. While Nigeria recorded periods of economic growth, this was often accompanied by increasing poverty rates and income inequality. The World Bank (2022) indicates that millions of Nigerians remained trapped in poverty, even as the economy showed signs of recovery. This contradiction suggests that economic growth under Buhari’s administration may not have been inclusive, raising questions about who benefitted from these growth figures and how wealth was distributed across different segments of society.

Moreover, the administration’s focus on diversifying the economy away from oil dependency, although commendable, faced significant obstacles. The agricultural sector, which was touted as a cornerstone of this diversification strategy, struggled with infrastructural deficits and inconsistent policies. Many farmers reported difficulties accessing markets and financing, which hindered the potential for agricultural growth to positively impact the broader economy. This situation points to a systemic issue in policy implementation and coordination that deserves closer scrutiny.

Additionally, the infrastructure development initiatives undertaken during Buhari’s tenure present another layer of complexity. While investments were made in critical areas such as transportation and energy, the benefits of these initiatives have been unevenly felt. Reports of project delays, corruption, and mismanagement have surfaced, suggesting that infrastructural growth has not translated into economic benefits for the majority of Nigerians. Understanding the gaps between planned infrastructure investments and their actual impact on economic growth is crucial for assessing the effectiveness of the administration’s policies.

The administration’s response to the economic challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic further complicates the analysis. While some fiscal measures were implemented to mitigate the crisis, critics argue that these efforts were reactive rather than part of a comprehensive long-term strategy. The lack of a cohesive recovery plan raises concerns about the administration’s capacity to manage economic crises effectively, highlighting the need for a robust framework that integrates immediate relief with sustainable growth.

Finally, the issue of governance and institutional capacity cannot be overlooked in evaluating economic growth during Buhari’s presidency. The effectiveness of economic policies is often contingent upon strong institutions and transparent governance. However, reports of corruption, lack of accountability, and inefficiency within various government agencies have cast doubt on the administration’s ability to implement reforms successfully. Addressing these governance challenges is essential for fostering an environment conducive to sustainable economic growth in Nigeria.

In summary, the economic growth experienced during Muhammadu Buhari’s administration raises significant questions about its sustainability, inclusivity, and effectiveness. A thorough investigation into these issues is necessary to understand the real impact of the administration’s policies and to inform future governance and economic strategies in Nigeria.

• Aim and Objectives of the Study

The aim of the study is to examine the impact of economy growth under former president muhammadu buhari’s administration. A case study 2015 to 2023.

1. To analyze the GDP growth rate during President Buhari’s tenure and compare it to previous administrations.
2. To assess the impact of government policies on key economic sectors such as agriculture, oil, and manufacturing.
3. To examine the unemployment rate and its trend over the years under President Buhari’s leadership.
4. To investigate the level of foreign direct investment and its contribution to economic growth.

1.4. Research Questions

The research questions are buttressed below:

1. How does the GDP growth rate during President Buhari’s tenure compare to previous administrations?
2. What is the impact of government policies on key economic sectors such as agriculture, oil, and manufacturing?
3. What is the trend of the unemployment rate over the years under President Buhari’s leadership?
4. What is the level of foreign direct investment and how does it contribute to economic growth?

1.5. Research Hypothesis

The hypothetical statement of the study is buttressed below:

Ho: There is no improvement between the GDP growth rate during President Buhari’s tenure and compare it to previous administrations.

H1: There is improvement between the GDP growth rate during President Buhari’s tenure and compare it to previous administrations.

1.6. Significance of the Study

The significance of this study lies in its exploration of the economic trajectory of Nigeria during the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari, spanning from 2015 to 2023. Understanding the dynamics of economic growth in this period is crucial, as it encompasses both the challenges and successes that shaped the country’s fiscal landscape. By analyzing key economic indicators, policies, and external factors, this study provides a comprehensive assessment of how Buhari’s administration influenced Nigeria’s economic development.

One of the primary areas of focus is the relationship between economic policies and growth rates. Buhari’s tenure witnessed a myriad of initiatives aimed at diversifying the economy away from oil dependency, which has historically dominated Nigeria’s economic framework. By examining the effectiveness of these initiatives, such as the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) and agricultural reforms, this study aims to highlight the successes and shortcomings in achieving sustainable growth. This analysis is critical for informing future policy directions and ensuring that subsequent administrations can build on lessons learned.

Furthermore, this study addresses the social implications of economic growth under Buhari’s administration. Economic policies do not exist in a vacuum; they directly affect the lives of citizens. By assessing the impact on employment rates, poverty levels, and income inequality, the research underscores the broader socio-economic outcomes of economic decisions made during this period. Understanding these implications provides valuable insights into how economic growth can be inclusive and equitable, ensuring that the benefits of progress are widely shared among the populace.

In addition, this study considers the external factors that influenced Nigeria’s economy during Buhari’s presidency. Global economic shifts, fluctuations in oil prices, and geopolitical dynamics played significant roles in shaping the country’s economic landscape. Analyzing these external influences allows for a more nuanced understanding of the challenges faced by the Buhari administration and how they affected economic performance. This perspective is essential for developing resilient economic strategies in an increasingly interconnected global economy.

Another significant aspect of the study is the evaluation of the impact of Buhari’s administration on investment climate and business confidence. The period from 2015 to 2023 saw varying levels of foreign direct investment (FDI) and local business activities, influenced by government policies and regulatory frameworks. By investigating the factors that either fostered or hindered investment, this study aims to provide actionable recommendations for enhancing Nigeria’s attractiveness as a destination for business and investment.

Finally, this research contributes to the broader discourse on governance and economic management in Nigeria. It aims to foster a deeper understanding of the relationship between leadership and economic outcomes, thereby enriching the narrative around democratic governance and economic development. By documenting the successes and failures of Buhari’s economic policies, this study not only serves as a historical account but also as a guiding framework for future leaders striving for economic growth and stability in Nigeria.

1.7. Scope of the Study

The study examines the impact of economy growth under former president muhammadu buhari’s administration. A case study 2015 to 2023.

1.8. Operational Definition of Terms

Impact: Impact refers to the significant effect or influence that one factor or event has on another. In the context of economic studies, impact often describes the consequences of policies, decisions, or external events on economic performance, social conditions, or specific sectors within a country.

Economic Growth: Economic growth is the increase in the production of goods and services in an economy over a specific period, usually measured by the rise in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It reflects the health of an economy and is often associated with improvements in living standards, employment rates, and overall prosperity.

President Muhammadu Buhari’s Administration: President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration refers to the government led by Muhammadu Buhari, who served as Nigeria’s President from May 29, 2015, to May 29, 2023. His tenure was marked by various economic policies aimed at addressing challenges such as oil dependency, inflation, and unemployment, as well as efforts to improve governance and security in Nigeria.

Growth: In an economic context, growth refers to an increase in the output of goods and services, typically assessed over time. It can also encompass improvements in productivity, technological advancements, and enhancements in infrastructure that contribute to an economy’s overall development and ability to meet the needs of its population.

Project – The impact of economy growth under former President Muhammadu Buhari’s Administration.