Project – Climate-Induced Migration and Its Implications for Regional Security in Border Communities of Kebbi State.

CHAPTER ONE

CLIMATE-INDUCED MIGRATION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR REGIONAL SECURITY IN BORDER COMMUNITIES OF KEBBI STATE

1.1 Background to the Study

Climate change has become one of the major environmental and developmental challenges confronting societies across the world. Rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, prolonged droughts, desertification, flooding and other extreme weather events increasingly affect people’s livelihoods, food production, access to water and settlement patterns. These environmental changes can weaken the economic and social conditions that enable communities to remain in their places of origin, thereby encouraging temporary or permanent migration. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2022) explains that climate-related hazards have already contributed to displacement and migration in different regions, although the extent and direction of movement depend on people’s economic resources, social networks, political conditions and ability to adapt. Climate-induced migration is therefore not simply the movement of people following an environmental event; it is often the outcome of the interaction between environmental pressure and existing social, economic and institutional vulnerabilities. In regions where livelihoods depend heavily on agriculture, livestock production and natural resources, even gradual environmental changes can create conditions that make migration a necessary survival strategy.

In Africa, climate change presents particularly serious challenges because a substantial proportion of the population depends on climate-sensitive economic activities, including rain-fed agriculture, pastoralism, fishing and other natural-resource-based livelihoods. Variations in rainfall, rising temperatures and recurrent droughts can reduce agricultural productivity, affect livestock health, intensify competition over water and grazing land, and increase household poverty. The IPCC (2022) identifies Africa as highly vulnerable to climate impacts because of its exposure to climatic hazards and limitations in adaptive capacity. Similarly, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO, 2023) reports that climate-related hazards in Africa have increasingly affected food security, water resources, infrastructure and human settlements. These pressures can influence migration decisions as households move in search of farmland, pasture, water, employment and safer living conditions. Migration may occur within a state, across local government boundaries or across international borders. Where movement takes place into areas already experiencing economic hardship, weak governance or competition over natural resources, it may generate additional social and security pressures for receiving communities.

The relationship between climate change and migration is complex because environmental conditions rarely operate as the only reason people move. Economic hardship, unemployment, insecurity, population growth, land-use changes and inadequate public services can combine with environmental pressures to influence migration. The International Organization for Migration (IOM, 2019) explains that environmental factors can influence migration in different ways, including sudden displacement following disasters and gradual movement resulting from deteriorating livelihood conditions. The World Bank (2021), in its assessment of internal climate migration, also observes that climate impacts can influence people’s decisions to move, particularly where agricultural productivity, water availability and livelihood opportunities decline. However, not everyone exposed to climate stress is able to migrate. Some households may lack the financial resources required to relocate, while others may remain because of family ties, cultural attachment, land ownership or uncertainty about conditions elsewhere. This means that climate-induced migration may involve voluntary movement, distress migration or displacement, depending on the circumstances. Understanding these different forms of movement is important when examining the security implications for border communities.

Nigeria is particularly exposed to climate-related environmental pressures because of its geographical diversity and dependence on natural resources for livelihoods. The northern part of the country experiences recurring challenges associated with irregular rainfall, drought, desertification, land degradation and pressure on water resources, while other parts of the country are affected by flooding, coastal erosion and other environmental hazards. The Federal Ministry of Environment (2021), through Nigeria’s climate policy framework, recognises the need to address climate risks affecting agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, settlements and vulnerable populations. The IPCC (2022) similarly identifies West Africa as a region where climate change interacts with livelihood insecurity, demographic pressures and institutional challenges. In northern Nigeria, these conditions can affect farmers and pastoralists whose economic activities depend on access to productive land, grazing areas and reliable water sources. When environmental conditions reduce the availability of these resources, individuals and households may move towards areas where they believe better livelihood opportunities exist. Such movements can place additional demands on receiving communities and local institutions, especially where land, water and public infrastructure are already limited.

Kebbi State occupies an important geographical position in north-western Nigeria and shares an international boundary with the Republic of Niger and the Republic of Benin, as well as domestic boundaries with neighbouring Nigerian states. Its border location makes the state significant for cross-border trade, migration, agricultural activities, livestock movement and social interaction among communities on both sides of national boundaries. Agriculture, fishing, livestock production and related commercial activities are important to the livelihoods of many residents. However, climate variability, irregular rainfall, flooding, drought and environmental degradation can affect these activities and influence patterns of movement within and around the state. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS, 2022) provides national and state-level socioeconomic information that demonstrates the importance of understanding local livelihood conditions when examining vulnerability. In Kebbi, the relationship between environmental stress and migration deserves particular attention because movements into border settlements may involve people seeking farmland, grazing areas, water, trading opportunities or alternative sources of income. These movements may be temporary or long-term and may involve both Nigerian citizens and people crossing from neighbouring countries.

The security implications of climate-induced migration become important when population movements interact with competition over natural resources, weak border governance and existing social tensions. The movement of farmers, pastoralists, traders and other groups into border communities can increase demand for land, water, housing, markets and public services. Where access to these resources is poorly regulated, disagreements may arise between host communities and migrants, farmers and pastoralists, or different groups competing for economic opportunities. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP, 2011) explains that environmental change can contribute to conflict risks where it intensifies existing vulnerabilities and competition over resources, although environmental factors should not be treated as automatic causes of violence. The United Nations Security Council (2021) has also recognised that climate-related security risks can affect peace and stability, particularly in vulnerable settings where governance and institutional responses are inadequate. In border communities, these pressures may be complicated by the movement of people and goods across national boundaries, making it more difficult for local authorities to monitor population movements, resolve disputes and prevent criminal exploitation of vulnerable groups.

Regional security in border communities extends beyond the protection of national territorial boundaries. It also includes the safety of residents, peaceful relations among social groups, effective management of migration, prevention of cross-border criminal activities, protection of livelihoods and cooperation between security institutions across neighbouring jurisdictions. Climate-induced migration may create security concerns when displaced or economically vulnerable populations become exposed to human trafficking, smuggling, banditry, exploitation, communal disputes and other forms of insecurity. Nevertheless, migrants should not automatically be regarded as security threats; many move because environmental and economic conditions have made their previous livelihoods difficult to sustain. The International Organization for Migration (IOM, 2019) emphasises the importance of migration governance that recognises the environmental drivers of mobility and protects affected populations. Similarly, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP, 2022) stresses the importance of addressing the connections between climate vulnerability, human security and institutional capacity. Against this background, examining climate-induced migration and its implications for regional security in border communities of Kebbi State is necessary to understand how environmental pressures influence population movement, how such movement affects host communities and what measures can strengthen local resilience, border management and peaceful coexistence.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Climate-induced migration has become an important concern in areas where environmental changes threaten livelihoods and influence population movement. In Kebbi State, the combination of rainfall variability, rising temperatures, drought, desertification and recurrent flooding creates challenges for communities whose livelihoods depend largely on agriculture, fishing and livestock production. A 2024 study by Salisu, Ejeikwu and Ejaro, which examined rainfall and temperature variability in Kebbi State between 1993 and 2022, reported significant variations in monthly rainfall and increasing temperature trends across the stations examined. These environmental changes have implications for agricultural productivity, water availability and the sustainability of rural livelihoods. The state’s geographical position, including its international boundaries with Niger and Benin Republics, also makes population movement an important issue for local development and border management. The official Kebbi State Government describes the state as having extensive border connections and areas vulnerable to drought and desertification.

When environmental pressures reduce access to productive land, pasture and water, affected households may move to other settlements in search of better living conditions. However, the extent to which such movements are climate-induced and their consequences for border communities have not been sufficiently established.

A further problem concerns the pressure that population movement may place on natural resources and relations between host communities and migrants. When people move into new settlements in search of farmland, grazing areas, water and economic opportunities, competition may develop where resources are limited or access arrangements are unclear. Such competition can contribute to disputes involving farmers, pastoralists, land users and other residents. Although climate change does not automatically cause violence, it can intensify existing social and economic grievances, particularly where poverty, weak institutions and ineffective conflict-resolution mechanisms are present. Tarif (2022), in a systematic review of climate change and violent conflict in West Africa, identifies deteriorating livelihoods, changing pastoral mobility, farmer–herder tensions and governance challenges as important pathways through which climate-related pressures may affect security. The International Organization for Migration (IOM, 2023) also identifies competition over farmland, grazing areas and water resources as factors contributing to tensions and violence in parts of Nigeria, including the North-West.

The problem, therefore, is not merely that people migrate because of environmental difficulties, but that poorly managed movements and resource competition may undermine peaceful coexistence and community stability.

Another major concern is the possible effect of climate-induced migration on border security and the capacity of relevant institutions to manage population movements. Kebbi State’s international boundaries with Niger and Benin create opportunities for legitimate trade, cultural interaction and family relations, but they also require effective border administration and cooperation among security agencies. Where environmental hardship contributes to cross-border movement, authorities may face challenges distinguishing ordinary livelihood-related mobility from movement associated with trafficking, smuggling and other unlawful activities. Migrants who experience poverty, displacement or loss of livelihoods may also become vulnerable to exploitation and criminal recruitment. At the same time, treating migrants generally as security threats could increase discrimination, undermine trust and make cooperation with host communities more difficult. The United Nations climate-security framework recognises that human mobility can affect peace and security by changing established patterns of resource use and placing additional pressure on receiving areas and institutions.

There is consequently a need to examine how climate-related movements affect border surveillance, community safety, local conflict management and cooperation between security agencies in Kebbi State.

Although climate change, migration and insecurity have attracted increasing academic and policy attention in Nigeria, there remains a need for context-specific understanding of their relationship in Kebbi State’s border communities. Existing regional discussions cannot automatically explain the experiences of individual communities because environmental conditions, migration patterns, resource-management arrangements and institutional capacities differ from one location to another. For example, IOM and NEMA’s post-flood assessment in Kebbi State identified 117 locations affected by flooding or receiving internally displaced persons during the October–November 2024 assessment period. The report recorded 280,230 people affected across the 18 local government areas assessed, including 66,532 displaced persons.

These figures demonstrate the scale of flood-related disruption during that assessment, but they do not by themselves establish the longer-term migration patterns or the wider regional security consequences in the state’s border communities. The central problem this study addresses is the insufficient understanding of how climate-related environmental pressures influence migration, how such migration affects resource competition and community relations, and how these developments shape regional security in border communities of Kebbi State. The study therefore seeks to examine these relationships and identify measures for strengthening climate resilience, peaceful coexistence and effective border security management.

1.3 Objectives of the Study

The general objective of this study is to examine climate-induced migration and its implications for regional security in border communities of Kebbi State.

The specific objectives are to:

1. Examine the major climate-related factors responsible for migration in border communities of Kebbi State.

2. Assess the patterns and socio-economic consequences of climate-induced migration for host communities and migrants in the study area.

3. Examine the implications of climate-induced migration for resource competition, communal relations and regional security in border communities of Kebbi State.

4. Identify the challenges confronting relevant government institutions and security agencies in managing climate-induced migration and its security implications in the study area.

1.4 Research Questions

The following research questions will guide the study:

1. What are the major climate-related factors responsible for migration in border communities of Kebbi State?

2. What are the patterns and socio-economic consequences of climate-induced migration for host communities and migrants in the study area?

3. What are the implications of climate-induced migration for resource competition, communal relations and regional security in border communities of Kebbi State?

4. What challenges confront relevant government institutions and security agencies in managing climate-induced migration and its security implications in the study area?

1.5 Research Hypothesis

The following null hypothesis will be tested in the study:

H₀: There is no significant relationship between climate-induced migration and regional security in border communities of Kebbi State.

1.6 Significance of the Study

This study will be significant to government institutions, security agencies, border communities, policymakers, development organisations, researchers and the general public. It will provide information on the relationship between environmental pressures, migration and security, with particular attention to the circumstances of border communities in Kebbi State.

Government and policymakers: The findings will provide useful information to federal, state and local government authorities on the need to integrate climate adaptation, migration management and security planning. The study may assist policymakers in developing programmes that address environmental vulnerability, livelihood insecurity, population movement and resource competition. It may also support the development of policies that recognise migration as a possible response to environmental hardship rather than treating all migrants as security threats.

Security agencies: The study will be useful to agencies responsible for border management, internal security, intelligence gathering and conflict prevention. It may help them understand how climate-related population movements can influence security conditions in border settlements. The findings may also encourage improved cooperation among security agencies, traditional institutions and community-based organisations in identifying emerging threats, protecting vulnerable populations and preventing criminal exploitation.

Host communities and migrants: The study will help residents and migrants understand the importance of peaceful coexistence, responsible resource use and community participation in resolving disputes. By examining the factors that contribute to tension, the research may encourage dialogue and cooperation between groups with different livelihood interests. It may also draw attention to the protection needs of people displaced or forced to move because of environmental hardship.

Traditional rulers and community leaders: Traditional institutions often play important roles in land administration, dispute resolution and the maintenance of social relationships. The study may provide useful information to traditional rulers and community leaders on how environmental pressures and migration influence local relationships. Its findings may support more inclusive approaches to mediation, resource sharing and conflict prevention.

Development and humanitarian organisations: Organisations working in climate adaptation, migration management, disaster response and peacebuilding may benefit from the study’s findings. The research may help such organisations identify areas where livelihood support, early-warning systems, water access, agricultural adaptation and assistance to displaced populations are necessary.

Researchers and students: The study will contribute to academic discussions on climate-induced migration and regional security, particularly within the Nigerian and West African contexts. It may serve as a reference for future studies on environmental security, border governance, migration, resource competition and community resilience.

1.7 Scope of the Study

The study focuses on climate-induced migration and its implications for regional security in border communities of Kebbi State, Nigeria. Geographically, it covers selected communities located within the state’s border areas, particularly those affected by environmental pressures and population movements associated with climate-related conditions. The study will consider the state’s border relationships with the Republics of Niger and Benin and the implications of these relationships for migration and security management.

In terms of content, the study will examine climate-related factors such as irregular rainfall, drought, desertification, flooding, rising temperatures and environmental degradation as possible drivers of migration. It will also consider the patterns of migration, including temporary movement, permanent relocation and displacement, as well as their effects on livelihoods, natural-resource access and host-community relationships.

Furthermore, the study will examine the security implications of climate-induced migration, particularly resource competition, communal disputes, pressure on local institutions, border-management challenges and the vulnerability of migrants to criminal exploitation. It will also consider the roles of government institutions, security agencies, traditional rulers and community organisations in managing migration and preventing insecurity. The study does not assume that migration necessarily produces insecurity; rather, it investigates the conditions under which climate-related population movements may contribute to or reduce security challenges.

1.8 Operational Definition of Terms

Climate Change: Long-term changes in temperature, rainfall patterns and other climatic conditions that affect the natural environment and human activities.

Climate-Induced Migration: The movement of individuals or groups from their usual places of residence, either temporarily or permanently, partly or substantially because climate-related conditions have affected their livelihoods, safety or ability to remain in their communities.

Migration: The movement of people from one geographical location to another for temporary or permanent residence, whether within a country or across an international boundary.

Environmental Degradation: The deterioration of the natural environment through processes such as desertification, soil erosion, deforestation, pollution and loss of vegetation, which may reduce the availability of natural resources.

Border Communities: Settlements located along or close to the international boundaries of Kebbi State with neighbouring countries, particularly the Republics of Niger and Benin.

Regional Security: The protection of communities, populations, institutions and territorial interests within a geographical region against threats that undermine peace, stability and human safety.

Resource Competition: Situations in which individuals or groups compete for limited resources such as farmland, grazing areas, water, forests and other livelihood-supporting resources.

Displacement: The forced or involuntary movement of people from their usual places of residence because of environmental disasters, conflict or other circumstances that make remaining in their homes unsafe or unsustainable.

Host Communities: Communities that receive migrants or displaced persons from other locations and provide, formally or informally, access to settlement, social relationships and livelihood opportunities.

Border Security: Measures and activities undertaken by relevant authorities to protect national boundaries, regulate cross-border movement and prevent unlawful activities while facilitating legitimate movement and interaction.

Human Security: An approach to security that focuses on protecting individuals and communities from threats to their lives, livelihoods, dignity and general well-being.

Climate Resilience: The ability of individuals, communities and institutions to anticipate, withstand, adapt to and recover from climate-related hazards and their consequences.

Project – Climate-Induced Migration and Its Implications for Regional Security in Border Communities of Kebbi State.