Project – Cost-of-Living Crisis and Voting Behaviour in Nigeria: A Study of the 2026 Osun Gubernatorial Election Campaign.

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background to the Study

Elections are central to democratic governance because they provide citizens with an opportunity to select political leaders, express preferences concerning public policies and hold governments accountable for their performance. In democratic societies, voting behaviour is influenced by a combination of political, social, psychological and economic considerations. While factors such as ethnicity, religion, party identification, candidate personality and political ideology have traditionally received considerable attention in explaining electoral choices, economic conditions have increasingly become important in understanding how citizens evaluate political parties and candidates. Economic voting theory particularly suggests that voters may reward governments when they perceive economic conditions to be improving and punish them when economic conditions deteriorate (Lewis-Beck & Stegmaier, 2007).

The relationship between economic conditions and voting behaviour has been extensively studied in political science. The central argument of the economic voting perspective is that citizens use economic performance as an important basis for assessing incumbent governments. Voters may consider their personal economic circumstances, commonly referred to as the pocketbook dimension, or evaluate the wider national economy, often referred to as the sociotropic dimension (Kinder & Kiewiet, 1979). Thus, when inflation increases, purchasing power declines, unemployment rises or household welfare deteriorates, citizens may become more dissatisfied with incumbent political actors and become more receptive to opposition candidates.

Economic conditions are particularly important in developing democracies because political preferences are often shaped by immediate livelihood concerns. In contexts where households have limited savings, weak social protection and substantial dependence on informal economic activities, increases in food, transportation, housing, energy and healthcare costs can have direct consequences for political attitudes. Economic hardship may therefore transform from an economic problem into a political issue when citizens attribute deteriorating living conditions to government policies or failures of governance.

Nigeria provides an important context for examining this relationship. The country’s economy has experienced considerable structural challenges, including unemployment, poverty, exchange-rate instability, inadequate electricity supply, high public debt and dependence on imported goods. These challenges have historically affected household welfare and generated public debates about government economic performance. Oyeyemi (2020) argues that economic conditions and the distribution of socioeconomic opportunities have important implications for political participation and democratic attitudes in Nigeria.

The cost-of-living crisis became substantially more pronounced following the economic reforms introduced by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu after May 2023. Two of the most consequential measures were the removal of the petrol subsidy and substantial reforms to the foreign-exchange regime. While the government argued that these measures were necessary to reduce fiscal pressures, improve market efficiency and create conditions for long-term economic growth, their short-term consequences included substantial increases in transportation, food and other household expenses.

The economic consequences generated significant public concern. Afrobarometer findings reported by Mbaegbu et al. indicate that Nigerians increasingly identified economic hardship, unemployment and the rising cost of living as major issues requiring government attention. Afrobarometer’s Nigeria surveys have also documented declining satisfaction with economic management and increasing concern about household welfare. These findings demonstrate that economic conditions have become an important part of citizens’ assessment of government performance.

The relationship between economic hardship and political participation in Nigeria is complicated, however, because economic deprivation can produce different forms of political behaviour. Some economically disadvantaged citizens may become more politically active because they want to punish governments perceived to be responsible for their hardship. Others may become politically disengaged because they perceive elections as incapable of improving their socioeconomic circumstances. Still others may become more susceptible to clientelist exchanges and vote-buying because immediate material benefits become more valuable when household resources are severely constrained.

Hoffmann and Patel (2022) provide important evidence concerning this latter relationship. Their study of vote-selling behaviour in Nigeria found that economic hardship and immediate material circumstances influence people’s willingness to exchange votes for money or gifts. They observed that vote-selling is frequently driven by practical considerations rather than ideological acceptance of the practice, particularly among poorer households.

This finding is particularly significant for understanding voting behaviour during periods of severe economic hardship. Where citizens struggle to meet immediate needs such as food, transportation and healthcare, a relatively small financial inducement offered during an election campaign may have substantial value. Economic hardship can therefore influence electoral behaviour not only through evaluations of government performance but also through the attractiveness of immediate material benefits offered by candidates and political parties.

The relationship between economic downturns and electoral participation has also received attention in the wider African literature. Lynge (2022), examining 317 presidential elections across 40 African countries, found that economic growth was positively associated with voter turnout, supporting the argument that deteriorating economic conditions can influence citizens’ willingness to participate in elections.

In Nigeria, the economic dimension of electoral politics is further complicated by the prevalence of vote-buying and clientelism. Bratton (2008), in his study of vote buying and violence in Nigerian election campaigns, demonstrated that material inducements and coercive practices can influence electoral behaviour. His findings are important because they show that voters’ economic circumstances can interact with campaign strategies, patron-client relationships and electoral competition.

Similarly, Vicente and Wantchekon (2023) identify clientelism and vote buying as important features of electoral competition in many African democracies. Their review of experimental evidence demonstrates that material inducements can influence electoral behaviour, although the effectiveness of such strategies varies according to political competition, community expectations and institutional conditions.

The political significance of economic hardship became particularly visible during Nigeria’s 2024 #EndBadGovernance protests. Rising prices, fuel costs, food insecurity and concerns about declining household purchasing power generated widespread public demonstrations. Afrobarometer’s analysis of the protests describes the socioeconomic environment as one in which rising prices and deepening poverty contributed to widespread dissatisfaction with government performance.

These developments are relevant to electoral politics because campaigns provide citizens with an opportunity to translate socioeconomic dissatisfaction into political choices. Political candidates frequently frame their campaign messages around employment, poverty reduction, food security, infrastructure, social welfare and economic empowerment. Consequently, the cost-of-living crisis can become a central campaign issue through which candidates seek either to defend the record of an incumbent administration or to persuade voters that an alternative government would improve their material conditions.

The importance of economic conditions in Nigerian elections has been demonstrated in previous electoral cycles. Owen and Usman (2015), examining the 2015 presidential election, observed that economic issues became increasingly prominent during the campaign and were connected to voters’ evaluations of the incumbent administration. Their analysis demonstrates that economic performance can become politically consequential when citizens believe that government policies have affected their everyday lives.

The 2026 Osun gubernatorial election provides a particularly valuable case for investigating these dynamics. The election took place on 15 August 2026 and was contested by multiple candidates, with the incumbent governor, Ademola Adeleke, seeking another term. The election attracted substantial national attention because it represented one of the final major electoral contests before the 2027 general elections.

The economic circumstances of Osun State made the election particularly relevant to the study of cost-of-living pressures. Osun is characterized by substantial informal economic activity, including trading, agriculture, artisanship, transport services and small-scale businesses. Households dependent on these activities are particularly sensitive to changes in food prices, transportation costs, energy prices and general purchasing power.

Economic performance also featured prominently in assessments of the state government during the 2026 election campaign. Data compiled by Dataphyte indicate that Osun’s domestic debt declined substantially between 2022 and 2025, while external debt increased during the same period. Such economic indicators became part of the broader assessment of the incumbent administration’s performance and the campaign debate surrounding governance in the state.

The 2026 Osun election was therefore not simply a contest between political parties and candidates; it also provided an opportunity for voters to evaluate competing claims about governance, economic management and household welfare. Campaign narratives involved questions concerning employment, poverty, infrastructure, education, public-sector performance and the general socioeconomic condition of residents.

The national economic environment also influenced the political context of the election. By 2026, Nigeria had experienced a prolonged period of high living costs, although official inflation had subsequently moderated from its earlier peak. Contemporary reporting in August 2026 indicated that inflation and economic hardship remained among the major issues influencing Nigerian political discourse.

The relationship between the national economic situation and a state-level election is nevertheless not necessarily straightforward. Voters may distinguish between federal and state responsibilities. A resident experiencing high food prices may blame federal economic policies, while simultaneously evaluating the state government based on employment opportunities, infrastructure, education, healthcare and social interventions. This distinction creates an important analytical question: to what extent did the broader cost-of-living crisis influence voting behaviour in the 2026 Osun gubernatorial election, and how did voters distinguish between national economic conditions and state-level governance?

Another important consideration is retrospective voting. Fiorina (1981) argues that voters can evaluate incumbent political actors retrospectively by considering their performance during the period preceding an election. In this sense, voters may compare their economic circumstances before and during an administration and use that comparison to determine whether to retain or replace incumbent leaders. Applied to the Osun context, voters may have assessed whether their household economic conditions had improved or deteriorated during the incumbent administration and whether the government deserved another term.

Prospective considerations may also influence electoral behaviour. Voters may support candidates based on expectations concerning future economic opportunities rather than simply evaluating past performance. Candidates who promise job creation, youth empowerment, agricultural support, social welfare, infrastructure development or reductions in living costs may attract voters who perceive their economic situation as insecure.

The campaign environment can further shape these economic evaluations. Political parties and candidates do not merely respond to voters’ concerns; they actively construct campaign narratives around economic problems. Through rallies, television, radio, social media, community meetings and interpersonal networks, candidates can frame the same economic situation in different ways. An incumbent may describe economic difficulties as temporary consequences of necessary reforms, while an opposition candidate may frame them as evidence of policy failure.

The role of information is therefore important. Voters may receive competing explanations concerning inflation, unemployment, poverty and government performance. Social media has expanded the speed with which economic information, campaign claims and political criticism circulate. The 2026 Osun election was consequently contested not only through traditional campaign rallies but also within an increasingly digital political information environment. DUBAWA’s monitoring of the election identified claims concerning government performance, political candidates and electoral processes circulating through Nigeria’s digital information space.

Economic hardship may also affect the intensity of electoral participation. Citizens who perceive elections as a means of changing economic conditions may be more motivated to vote, whereas citizens who believe that political change will not improve their material circumstances may abstain. The relationship between economic conditions and turnout is therefore not necessarily linear. Lynge (2022) demonstrates that economic downturns can affect turnout differently depending on political and institutional circumstances.

The 2026 Osun election is particularly useful for studying this relationship because turnout was not universal. The election occurred within a broader context of voter disengagement in Nigeria, with the preceding 2026 Ekiti governorship election recording turnout of only 36.07 percent of registered voters. This suggests that economic dissatisfaction may interact with other factors—including political trust, campaign mobilization, candidate appeal, perceived competitiveness and electoral expectations—to determine whether citizens participate.

Another dimension is vote-buying. The 2026 off-cycle elections generated renewed concern regarding the financial value attached to votes. Contemporary reporting following the Ekiti and Osun elections suggested that reported vote-buying payments in some areas had reached approximately ₦20,000–₦50,000, although such figures should not be generalized to every voter or polling unit. The available evidence nevertheless suggests that economic hardship provides an important context for understanding the persistence of material inducements during elections.

The relationship between cost-of-living pressures and vote-buying should, however, be distinguished from a simple assumption that poor voters automatically sell their votes. Hoffmann and Patel (2022) found that most Nigerians disapprove of vote-selling even though economic circumstances can make material inducements attractive. Their research suggests that vote-selling is shaped by practical circumstances, community norms and expectations concerning what other voters are likely to do.

The 2026 Osun election therefore provides an important opportunity to examine several dimensions of voting behaviour simultaneously: retrospective evaluation of economic performance, perceptions of household economic conditions, campaign promises concerning welfare, susceptibility to material inducements, voter turnout and candidate preference.

The study is also important because existing research on Nigerian voting behaviour has frequently emphasized ethnicity, religion, party identification, clientelism, political violence and institutional factors. Although economic considerations have received attention, there remains a need for contemporary research examining how the post-2023 cost-of-living crisis shaped voting behaviour at the subnational level. The 2026 Osun gubernatorial election provides a particularly timely case because it occurred after several years of substantial economic disruption and immediately before the 2027 general elections.

The study therefore conceptualizes the cost-of-living crisis not simply as a macroeconomic phenomenon but as a political experience affecting household welfare, perceptions of government performance and electoral decision-making. It examines whether voters who experienced greater economic hardship were more likely to support opposition candidates, seek immediate material benefits, abstain from voting or change their political preferences.

It is against this background that this study investigates Cost-of-Living Crisis and Voting Behaviour in Nigeria: A Study of the 2026 Osun Gubernatorial Election Campaign.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Nigeria’s contemporary political environment has been significantly affected by a prolonged cost-of-living crisis characterized by increases in food prices, transportation costs, energy expenses, housing costs and other basic household expenditures. The economic reforms implemented since 2023 were intended to address structural weaknesses and establish a more sustainable economic framework, but their immediate effects placed considerable pressure on household purchasing power.

The resulting economic hardship created a significant political problem because citizens increasingly evaluate government performance through their everyday material experiences. When households struggle to afford basic necessities, economic conditions may become more important in determining political attitudes and voting behaviour. Afrobarometer evidence has repeatedly shown that Nigerians place substantial importance on economic opportunities, jobs and the cost of living when assessing government priorities.

The problem is particularly relevant to Nigeria’s electoral democracy because elections are expected to provide citizens with an opportunity to reward effective governance and reject poor performance. However, economic hardship may produce contradictory electoral responses. Some voters may punish incumbents because they associate government policies with worsening living conditions. Others may support incumbents because they believe that economic reforms require time to produce benefits. Others may become disengaged from elections because they perceive political competition as incapable of addressing their economic difficulties.

A further concern is that economic hardship may increase the attractiveness of vote-buying. Hoffmann and Patel (2022) found that economic circumstances and immediate material needs influence vote-selling behaviour in Nigeria. This creates a potential contradiction within democratic participation: citizens may formally participate in elections while simultaneously experiencing economic pressures that make them vulnerable to clientelist exchanges.

The problem is especially significant in state-level elections because voters must distinguish between different levels of government responsibility. National policies influence inflation, exchange rates, fuel prices and monetary conditions, whereas state governments exercise greater influence over areas such as education, healthcare, roads, agriculture, local economic development and social interventions. The extent to which voters distinguish these responsibilities when making electoral decisions remains insufficiently understood.

The 2026 Osun gubernatorial election presents a useful case for investigating this problem. The election followed several years of economic hardship and was contested in an environment where economic issues featured prominently in political discourse. The election was also closely watched nationally because of its importance as a political indicator ahead of the 2027 general elections. Contemporary analysis described the contest as extending beyond the immediate competition for the Osun Government House to broader questions concerning political mobilisation and the strength of local political structures.

Another dimension of the problem concerns voter participation. Economic hardship may encourage political participation when citizens believe that electoral change can improve their circumstances, but it may also produce political apathy. Evidence from the 2026 Ekiti governorship election, where turnout was 36.07 percent, demonstrates that low participation remains a significant issue in Nigeria’s off-cycle elections.

The persistence of vote-buying provides an additional challenge. Reports following the 2026 Osun election indicated renewed concerns about the financialization of electoral competition, with reported payments in some areas reaching tens of thousands of naira per voter. Although such reports cannot establish that all voters participated in vote-buying, they reinforce the need to examine whether economic hardship creates conditions under which immediate financial inducements become more influential in electoral decisions.

Existing empirical literature has established important relationships between economic conditions and political behaviour. Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier (2007) demonstrate the importance of economic evaluations in electoral politics, while Bratton (2008) and Hoffmann and Patel (2022) demonstrate the importance of material incentives and economic circumstances in Nigerian electoral behaviour. Lynge (2022) further shows that economic downturns can affect electoral participation across African countries.

However, a significant gap remains concerning the relationship between the post-2023 cost-of-living crisis and voting behaviour in a contemporary Nigerian subnational election. Much of the existing Nigerian literature focuses on national elections, historical electoral cycles, vote-buying or broader democratic participation. Comparatively limited research has examined how voters’ experiences of rising living costs influenced their electoral preferences, turnout decisions and responses to campaign messages in the 2026 Osun gubernatorial election.

The problem addressed by this study is therefore the insufficient empirical understanding of how cost-of-living pressures translated into actual voting behaviour during the 2026 Osun gubernatorial election campaign. Without such evidence, it remains difficult to determine whether economic hardship primarily produced anti-incumbency voting, increased demand for material inducements, voter disengagement or stronger support for candidates promising socioeconomic relief.

This study consequently seeks to examine the extent to which the cost-of-living crisis influenced voters’ political preferences, participation, candidate evaluation and responsiveness to campaign promises during the 2026 Osun gubernatorial election.

1.3 Aim of the Study

The main aim of this study is to examine the influence of the cost-of-living crisis on voting behaviour in Nigeria, using the 2026 Osun gubernatorial election campaign as a case study.

1.4 Objectives of the Study

The specific objectives are to:

1. examine the extent to which the cost-of-living crisis influenced voters’ political preferences during the 2026 Osun gubernatorial election campaign;
2. assess the relationship between household economic hardship and voter participation in the 2026 Osun gubernatorial election;
3. examine the influence of cost-of-living pressures on voters’ evaluation of political candidates and campaign promises;
4. assess the extent to which economic hardship influenced voters’ susceptibility to vote-buying and other material inducements during the election campaign; and
5. examine the implications of cost-of-living pressures for voting behaviour and democratic participation in Osun State.

1.5 Research Questions

The study seeks to answer the following questions:

1. To what extent did the cost-of-living crisis influence voters’ political preferences during the 2026 Osun gubernatorial election campaign?
2. What relationship existed between household economic hardship and voter participation in the 2026 Osun gubernatorial election?
3. To what extent did cost-of-living pressures influence voters’ evaluation of political candidates and campaign promises?
4. To what extent did economic hardship influence voters’ susceptibility to vote-buying and other material inducements during the election campaign?
5. What are the implications of cost-of-living pressures for voting behaviour and democratic participation in Osun State?

1.6 Research Hypothesis

H₀: There is no significant relationship between cost-of-living hardship and voting behaviour among voters in the 2026 Osun gubernatorial election.

1.7 Significance of the Study

This study will be significant to political scientists, policymakers, electoral institutions, political parties, civil society organizations, researchers and the electorate.

Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC): The study will provide evidence on the socioeconomic factors affecting voter participation and electoral behaviour. Such information may assist INEC and other electoral stakeholders in developing voter education and participation strategies that recognize socioeconomic realities.

Osun State Government: The findings will provide evidence concerning the relationship between household welfare and political behaviour. This may help state policymakers understand how economic performance, social interventions and public-service delivery influence citizens’ political evaluations.

Federal Government: Since national economic policies influence inflation, fuel prices, exchange rates and household purchasing power, the study will provide insight into the political consequences of economic reforms and the importance of considering citizens’ welfare in policy implementation.

Political Parties and Candidates: The research will help political parties understand how economic conditions influence voters’ priorities and responses to campaign messages. It may encourage parties to develop policy-based campaigns focusing on employment, poverty reduction, food security and sustainable economic development rather than relying primarily on clientelist strategies.

Civil Society Organizations: Organizations involved in voter education, democratic governance and anti-corruption advocacy may use the findings to design interventions addressing vote-buying, voter apathy and the socioeconomic factors influencing electoral participation.

Researchers and Students: The study will contribute to the literature on economic voting, voting behaviour, clientelism and electoral politics in Nigeria. It will also provide a basis for comparative studies of economic conditions and electoral behaviour in other Nigerian states.

Electorate: The study may contribute to greater awareness of the relationship between economic conditions, political choices and democratic accountability, encouraging voters to evaluate candidates based on policy performance and long-term public interest.

1.8 Scope of the Study

The study focuses on the relationship between the cost-of-living crisis and voting behaviour in Nigeria, using the 2026 Osun gubernatorial election campaign as its case study.

Conceptually, the study examines household economic hardship, perceptions of inflation and living costs, candidate evaluation, campaign promises, voter participation, political preference and susceptibility to material inducements.

Geographically, the study is restricted to voters in Osun State. The study focuses on the 2026 gubernatorial election campaign and the election held on 15 August 2026, while drawing on the broader economic context that developed particularly after 2023.

1.9 Operational Definition of Terms

Cost-of-Living Crisis: A period in which the prices of essential goods and services increase substantially relative to household income, resulting in declining purchasing power and increased difficulty meeting basic needs.

Voting Behaviour: The decisions and actions of citizens in relation to elections, including whether to vote, candidate preference, party preference, consideration of campaign promises and responses to electoral inducements.

Economic Voting: A voting process in which citizens evaluate political candidates or incumbent governments partly on the basis of perceived economic performance and personal or national economic conditions.

Household Economic Hardship: The difficulty experienced by households in meeting basic financial needs such as food, transportation, housing, education, healthcare and energy expenses.

Vote-Buying: The provision or acceptance of money, goods, services or other material benefits in exchange for electoral support.

Political Preference: The choice or inclination of a voter toward a particular candidate, political party or political platform.

Voter Participation: The involvement of eligible citizens in the electoral process, particularly through voting.

Campaign Promise: A commitment made by a political candidate or party concerning policies, programmes or actions that the candidate intends to implement if elected.

Anti-Incumbency Voting: Voting against a sitting government or incumbent candidate as a result of dissatisfaction with perceived government performance.

Electoral Behaviour: The broader pattern of political decisions and actions associated with elections, including turnout, candidate choice, party support, campaign engagement and responses to political incentives.

Project – Cost-of-Living Crisis and Voting Behaviour in Nigeria: A Study of the 2026 Osun Gubernatorial Election Campaign.